Monday, November 30, 2009
US Treasuries and TLT rise in resumed uptrend -
US Treasury bond prices rose instead of downtrending - so it looks like they are resuming their prior uptrend. Last week I tweeted about dumping my TBT because TLT was moving back over its 50-day MA. That suggests that these bonds will still try upward for perhaps a 50% retrace of their drop. That suggests $USB to $127.50, and TLT to and above $101. I also noticed that the selling volumes in TLT off the high weren't so massive - another reason to give these bonds benefit of the doubt here, above their 200-day MA now too.
UNG appears to need more consolidation and buy volume, but can be traded cautiously away from this level
Natural gas dropped today and I'm sure many are wondering if it was a wave 2 pullback to start buying. The ETF, UNG, doesn't show great buying volume on the recent bounce, followed by lighter volume on the pullback as typically needed for a swing trade reversal pattern. So I hesitate to recommend buying even a move higher from here, because it doesn't look promising. Still it's possible to buy a move up from here, just keeping a stop and honoring it to minimize loss if it falls back again. It's traced out a wide channel on its downtrend - a move up to $10.50 would be about at the upper bound of that. I can't rule out that it won't drop in another (final) wave down, even if it does test a bit higher first. Part of the reason I day that is because of the $NatGas chart (also below).
The $NatGas chart (which moves differently from UNG, so should be analyzed on its own - but should be referenced) is consolidating from its smart move off its low. It doesn't necessarily have to drop lower or pullback more. But it can, since the correction doesn't look like much yet. It had already poked up to price resistance and moving average resistance, so it wouldn't be surprising for the $NatGas pullback to be only partway through an ABC correction.
Maybe the best way to sum this up is, that it can be traded in whichever direction it selects in a day or so, but with more skepticism for UNG on the long side unless the technicals substantially improve. That approach may mean different things depending on whether you're already in a position and considering an option hedge, or setting up a straddle or other options play. Otherwise, those interested in buying UNG should use good stop protection, or instead, might want to wait a bit longer for a more promising entry. I've been pounding the table about buying volumes for weeks now - and that's still what's needed!
The $NatGas chart (which moves differently from UNG, so should be analyzed on its own - but should be referenced) is consolidating from its smart move off its low. It doesn't necessarily have to drop lower or pullback more. But it can, since the correction doesn't look like much yet. It had already poked up to price resistance and moving average resistance, so it wouldn't be surprising for the $NatGas pullback to be only partway through an ABC correction.
Maybe the best way to sum this up is, that it can be traded in whichever direction it selects in a day or so, but with more skepticism for UNG on the long side unless the technicals substantially improve. That approach may mean different things depending on whether you're already in a position and considering an option hedge, or setting up a straddle or other options play. Otherwise, those interested in buying UNG should use good stop protection, or instead, might want to wait a bit longer for a more promising entry. I've been pounding the table about buying volumes for weeks now - and that's still what's needed!
Stock markets show they're not ready to roll over yet, as financials retest upward
Stock markets were able fo find support today, and even get a boost from the favorable Chicago PMI report to move back above SPX 1092 to retest 1097. The charts below show that the financials which supposedly led the rally today were actually retesting back up to technical levels which remain resistance for now. The NYAD moved positive of course, but not enough to show a breakout. So the markets have hung in for another day, trying to bide time for a possible re-testing of upper resistance such as SPX 1100. That may happen, will see, but also may need more "downtime" first. That doesn't necessarily mean a huge drop. Just as 1100 is resistance, SPX is getting support above 1082, and it would take a break of 1082 to get more bearish. Instead, it's looking like a sideways consolidation or churning and for a trend trade needs to break above or below. Meantime, daytraders are making money on both sides as the SPX moves up and down in the current range.
Technically, with the higher volumes that came in today, the SPX got support above the 1084 level that's important now, and 1087, which happens now to be the area of the Bollinger Band (BB) midline. And it halted at the 1097 level which now happens to be the 13-day exponential moving average (EMA). This gives added reason to get more bearish if the SPX moves under 1082 because that would also be a loss of the BB midline. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I'm finding the moves to be too choppy to give me a satisfying wave count. So I'm tempted to think if terms of an extended fourth-wave consolidation but won't get wedded to the idea.
I've included below the hourly charts of Goldman Sachs and the XLF (also a daily chart of the XLF). A positive way of looking at this is that they didn't drop today, and they could be building a base. Actually we've got the idea that GS may be working on a 4th wave consolidation so that idea of a base could be right ... but kinda think GS needs to test down to the $150's first. That's one reason we weren't tempted to buy as it and XLF flicked up into MA and BB resistance today.
The second chart below is an hourly chart of FXE, the ETF that tracks the euro. It's moving inversely to the $USD dollar index. You can see the break where the euro dropped sharply but today recovered, though not all the way. This is certainly an important factor we and others are watching closely because currently, dollar weakness still favors equities.
I reviewed an interesting analysis today saying that the dollar won't always move inverse to commodities. It reminds me of the point that it won't always move inverse to equities either. But today the inverse correlation seems intact still.
Technically, with the higher volumes that came in today, the SPX got support above the 1084 level that's important now, and 1087, which happens now to be the area of the Bollinger Band (BB) midline. And it halted at the 1097 level which now happens to be the 13-day exponential moving average (EMA). This gives added reason to get more bearish if the SPX moves under 1082 because that would also be a loss of the BB midline. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I'm finding the moves to be too choppy to give me a satisfying wave count. So I'm tempted to think if terms of an extended fourth-wave consolidation but won't get wedded to the idea.
I've included below the hourly charts of Goldman Sachs and the XLF (also a daily chart of the XLF). A positive way of looking at this is that they didn't drop today, and they could be building a base. Actually we've got the idea that GS may be working on a 4th wave consolidation so that idea of a base could be right ... but kinda think GS needs to test down to the $150's first. That's one reason we weren't tempted to buy as it and XLF flicked up into MA and BB resistance today.
The second chart below is an hourly chart of FXE, the ETF that tracks the euro. It's moving inversely to the $USD dollar index. You can see the break where the euro dropped sharply but today recovered, though not all the way. This is certainly an important factor we and others are watching closely because currently, dollar weakness still favors equities.
I reviewed an interesting analysis today saying that the dollar won't always move inverse to commodities. It reminds me of the point that it won't always move inverse to equities either. But today the inverse correlation seems intact still.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
ChartsEdge (US) equities pattern forecast for 11/30, & confidence chart
Below is the ChartsEdge Pattern Recognition map for tomorrow - as readers will recall, it works best when the ChartsEdge BP and today's portion of the ChartsEdge weekly cycle forecast also "agree". Their BP map for Monday should be provided by 8:00 am at the ChartsEdge subscriber site. (Use the ChartsEdge links below and at right for more details.). You can also see the ChartsEdge weekly posted here yesterday (lower on this page today, and always available under the "ChartsEdge weekly" label.). Note - changed time stamp to appear top of page in the morning for the intraday (map starts 9:30 am ET).
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ChartsEdge Pattern Recognition for Nov30
Posted: November 29th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |
Updated Trader Confidence
Posted: November 27th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 that helps show whether, or not, the equities rally is over (yet): Andre Gratian's Turning Points update
Andre Gratian shares his weekly technical analysis update of the S&P 500 (thanks again Andre!), and makes available intraday updates every trading day to his subscribers. His website is at Market Turning Points (always included in the sites list at right side of the page here), and he also posts regularly at SafeHaven.com (also a great source, in the list at right). Andre incorporates technical analysis with indicators, trendlines, review of sentiment, and some consideration of wave patterns, as well as cycles.
Andre analyzes the S&P 500 index with classic technical analysis, cycles, trendlines and Fibonacci projections. He's helped our readers many times through this equities rally, including by warning when it wasn't quite ready to top out. What's he saying now? We'll see:
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Andre analyzes the S&P 500 index with classic technical analysis, cycles, trendlines and Fibonacci projections. He's helped our readers many times through this equities rally, including by warning when it wasn't quite ready to top out. What's he saying now? We'll see:
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By Andre Gratian
Let’s start with generalities and move on to specifics. Please note that the correct close on Friday should read 1091.11. The error will not affect our analysis.
The SPX has run into the serious resistance created by a long-term trend line. It has been in an uptrend since March and is trading near the top of its larger (green) channel -- a sign of strength -- which is supported by the A/D oscillator that, until now, has been positive except for two serious dips in the negative: once in July, and the other recently, in early November. Both were advertised by negative divergence patterns.
The July dip was followed by a strong price advance after it returned into the positive. The November one either needs more consolidation before the index can resume its advance, or it is the indication of an important top if it returns decisively into negative territory -- provided it is confirmed by other negative technical readings. What would those be?
To start, the SPX would have to break below its 50-dma (blue), which would also put it outside of the black secondary channel. This would only constitute a minor correction, providing prices remained above the early November low. If it did break those, in order to grow into a major decline it would have to continue down and move outside its green channel (below 1000) and then successfully challenge the (red) 200-dma by moving through it.
Only if it did all these things could we say that we are back in a major decline which had the potential of challenging the March lows!
Is Friday’s strong correction the beginning of such a move? Too early to tell, but unlikely! We won’t have to wait too long for an answer, however. There are 4 short-term cycles bottoming between Monday and 12/7. If the SPX has not moved decisively below the 50-dma and out of its black channel by that date, instead of weakness, we should be ready to resume the rally to new highs.
The chart of the USD (below) would have to show a break-out in order to confirm a top in the SPX. It doesn’t! Friday’s rally did not come even close to provoking a reversal. In order to reverse, the $ index would have to move above its MAs and the channel in which it is currently trapped. It does not appear ready to do this. This is one of the main reasons why the SPX is probably only undergoing a consolidation pattern.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the SPX (below). The index is making a consolidating pattern which looks like a triangle, but probably is not. It will clarify itself as we move forward.
The cycles discussed earlier are marked by asterisks or numbers. The last one falls on 12/7. The consolidation should be over and the rally underway by then. In fact, the rally could start with the Jobs report on Friday 12/4 which would correspond with the blue asterisk.
The limits of the consolidation -- so far -- have been marked by a small black channel. The upper bottom trend line is where prices found support at 1084 on Friday before starting a good rally. The bottom of the channel, as drawn, may not contain the decline into the future cycle lows. I have mentioned earlier that if 1085 was broken decisively, prices could move, initially, to 1070 as their first target. With the S&P E-mini dipping to 1067 in pre-market trading, it is likely that the target has been filled, but it may be re-tested by the cash.
As of Friday’s close, the hourly indicator was oversold, but not quite ready to turn up. The daily indicator is still declining.
A resumption of the decline into the first bottom on Monday is likely, followed by a small rally.
Let’s see how the week goes before making too many specific predictions. The first thing to determine is if the consolidation pattern will hold or evolve into a full-fledged decline.
Andre
Market Turning Points
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know atajg@cybertrails.com.
ChartsEdge week-ahead cycle forecasts for equities and gold
Here are the week-ahead cycle-based forecasts from ChartsEdge for the upcoming week of November 30 - December 4. Also, as they remind us from time to time, these primarily depict timing and not necessarily relative price highs and lows. These forecast charts also gain more predictive strength when similar moves are indicated by ChartsEdge's daily BP maps and Pattern Recognition charts (both of which are available daily before the open at ChartsEdge's subscriber site). More information on how they generate these cycle-based forecasts is available from the ChartsEdge site (link above and in list at right), much of which I've also placed at my NB3 education site (link at right).
So without further ado, here's the week-ahead view from ChartsEdge:
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So without further ado, here's the week-ahead view from ChartsEdge:
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Saturday, November 28, 2009
Objective Elliott Waves clues to the end of the stock markets rally - Tony Caldaro's weekend update
Some markets have already confirmed downtrends, others are getting close or in the process. We're fortunate to reference this weekend's update of the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro - at his http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ site (always in the list at right). Let's see what he's saying now, after all the events of the past week!
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While it dropped, oil managed support above $70 (so far)
Oil dropped but recovered by the end of the day Friday to remain above its 50-day moving average. The daily chart indicators went negative, but those on the monthly actually remain positive. There's support at and just above $70 from moving averages and from one of my trendlines on the monthly chart. It definitely needs to stay over price support at the prior $65 swing low. It will be interesting if it's able to recover above $70. While I haven't been bullish on oil since it hit the monthly Bollinger Band midline and stalled, I may have to respect the long side more if oil is able to remain over $70 (even if another round of weakness makes it edge close to that level).
I understand the Elliott Wave count is probably bullish long term, which is one reason I'm not feeling strongly bearish as some seem to be. But it helps to identify support levels. So unless it breaks $70 (and especially $65), I'll give the oil price the benefit of the doubt.
UPDATE 5:05 pm - I see Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave update today refers to oil getting ready to downtrend. So my feelings on oil may be in line with the EW count at least near-term! That implies that it will lose the moving average support. If it also loses $70, that may send it to test $65 (and we'll take another look at price targets by then.)
I understand the Elliott Wave count is probably bullish long term, which is one reason I'm not feeling strongly bearish as some seem to be. But it helps to identify support levels. So unless it breaks $70 (and especially $65), I'll give the oil price the benefit of the doubt.
UPDATE 5:05 pm - I see Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave update today refers to oil getting ready to downtrend. So my feelings on oil may be in line with the EW count at least near-term! That implies that it will lose the moving average support. If it also loses $70, that may send it to test $65 (and we'll take another look at price targets by then.)
Insightful markets analysis - articles and audio - for a very interesting holiday weekend
We'll have an interesting weekend including taking a look at what some others are seeing and saying on the markets. Recently there have been a number of views and items pointed out, such as mutual funds' low amounts of cash (bearish), investors feeling anxious (bullish), TRIN popped high (bullish), ISEE popped high (bearish). This is all fodder for analysts so here's an overview of some (through the weekend will add more here, to avoid a multiplicity of posts):
ADDED -
ADDED - Fall Down Friday - Dubai Cruel World! | Phil’s Stock World - By Philip Davis at his site, http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/11/27/fall-down-friday-dubai-cruel-world/. I'm actually not a member there but if you're daytrading the ES or options you probably should consider it.
ADDED - http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=96511. Here's their intro paragraph:
An article by Bill Mitchell, at his billy blog » Blog Archive » Dubai is not a case of sovereign default - http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=6358.
ISEE Red Candles - Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight, with a variety of interesting charts and points, at http://slopeofhope.com/2009/11/isee-red-candles.html.
VIX and More: Chart of the Week: No More Free Lunch for Volatility Sellers? by Bill Luby, at http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-week-no-more-free-lunch-for.html.
I came across information on this trading book: - not one I've seen but here's the recommendation I read, so it might be worth keeping an eye out for it:
Also, this is an audio I just came across and haven't been able to listen to yet but have been told is
interesting especially for Elliott Wave'rs - by Ed Handley 11/24 at WDMV Program Schedule: http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html.
Several interesting chart-based technical analysis posts based on SPX
analysis, at Cobra's Market View: http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/.
China Meltdown | Charts and Coffee Blog - http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/.
This article is interesting for background (we still trade on
technicals, especially for timing): Gold Market | How and Why China Will Flood the Gold Market - Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks, at http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/how-and-why-china-will-flood-the-gold-market/21149.
Safe Haven | Yen's Perfect Storm, by Ashraf Laidi, 11/27 - http://www.safehaven.com/article-15131.htm.
Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava - Looks like they taped on Thursday. This weekend's featured technician is Dow Theorist and cycles analyst, Tim Wood of Cycles News & Viewshttp://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php.
Safe Haven | Technical Market Report, by Mike Burk, at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15138.htm. A quote from his intro, though you'll want to read it all:
ADDED -
Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations. At http://www.ttheory.com/
Here's his intro statement:
Update for Sunday November 29 2009. Today covers many longer range topics that help to answer the shorter term T Theory forecast which remains very bullish. Look at the 3 chart PDF files below then listen to the 4 Audio commentaries that follow.Long Range Ts Chart Download ADTSCurrent ; Chart Download ADT13 with first Echo091127 ;
Chart Download FAGIX vs GOLD YTD091127
Audio Commentary on Long Range Ts Download TTO20091129A
Audio Commentary on 8 Year Cycle Download TTO20091129B
Audio Commentary on First Echo Analysis Download TTO20091129C
Audio Commentary on Sector Benchmarks Download TTO20091129D
ADDED - Fall Down Friday - Dubai Cruel World! | Phil’s Stock World - By Philip Davis at his site, http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/11/27/fall-down-friday-dubai-cruel-world/. I'm actually not a member there but if you're daytrading the ES or options you probably should consider it.
ADDED - http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=96511. Here's their intro paragraph:
News of credit trouble out of Dubai shattered the quiet of the holiday-shortened week on Friday, ending the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) winning streak at three weeks. Looking ahead, Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Strategist (filling in for Todd Salamone due to the holiday), makes the case for a continued run higher by the bulls, although he acknowledges some short-term technical hurdles. Ryan's contrarian mindset is cheered by the continued skepticism in the face of the huge bull run of 2009. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the overall performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) following the release of Black Friday's sales data. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.
An article by Bill Mitchell, at his billy blog » Blog Archive » Dubai is not a case of sovereign default - http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=6358.
SP500 High at Fifty Percent Time and Price Cycles - PTV-Investing.com, Gann analysis by Andy Askey
http://ptv-investing.com/blog/2009/11/17/sp500-high-fifty-percent-time-price-cycles/. Here's just a quote, you'll want to see Andy's full work there:
The SP500 index hit the 50/50 point and is in equilibrium – no advantage to either side.
Dynamic Chart
Andy Askey's additional post, ValueLine Arithmetic Square of 90 - PTV-Investing.com, at http://ptv-investing.com/blog/2009/11/26/valueline-arithmetic-square-of-90/. Here's a quote from this one too:
The ValueLine Arithmetic (VLE) Square of 90using trading days shows price 180 TD beyond the March low. Interesting that the left shoulder of the head-and-shoulders formation occurred 45 days into the second 90 day cycle, the head at the 3/4 time line, and the shoulder finished at the 180 day mark. A new high would negate the H&S but I would not be surprised to see price drop throughout December.The VLE swing chart show topping action during the past month. Also note that the high was within one percent of 8 complete square of 9 cycles from the March low. This is another reason not to be surprised if the high is in.
ISEE Red Candles - Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight, with a variety of interesting charts and points, at http://slopeofhope.com/2009/11/isee-red-candles.html.
VIX and More: Chart of the Week: No More Free Lunch for Volatility Sellers? by Bill Luby, at http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-week-no-more-free-lunch-for.html.
I came across information on this trading book: - not one I've seen but here's the recommendation I read, so it might be worth keeping an eye out for it:
"One of the best trading text book written in my opinion is (Aerodynamic Trading) by Mrs. Constance M. Brown. She is an experienced Elliott Wave trader, she worked in the industry for many years. Goal setting, Psychological Tactics, and The Three selves and Competition and Winning sections are worth the cost of her book alone. Intuition section is awesome... Courage to make the trade ect... The book is a must for anyone who is dead serious about winning at this high stakes game.
"She also talks about The Dark Side of Trading.... Fear of Success, Fear of Failure etc... The text book is 304 pages long. Its out of print, so you must search old books.... the book's value has really increased."
Also, this is an audio I just came across and haven't been able to listen to yet but have been told is
interesting especially for Elliott Wave'rs - by Ed Handley 11/24 at WDMV Program Schedule: http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html.
Several interesting chart-based technical analysis posts based on SPX
analysis, at Cobra's Market View: http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/.
China Meltdown | Charts and Coffee Blog - http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/.
This article is interesting for background (we still trade on
technicals, especially for timing): Gold Market | How and Why China Will Flood the Gold Market - Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks, at http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/how-and-why-china-will-flood-the-gold-market/21149.
Safe Haven | Yen's Perfect Storm, by Ashraf Laidi, 11/27 - http://www.safehaven.com/article-15131.htm.
Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava - Looks like they taped on Thursday. This weekend's featured technician is Dow Theorist and cycles analyst, Tim Wood of Cycles News & Viewshttp://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php.
Safe Haven | Technical Market Report, by Mike Burk, at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15138.htm. A quote from his intro, though you'll want to read it all:
One of my programs reported 0% volume of advancing issues and 100% volume of declining issues for the components of the DJIA, S&P 100 (OEX) and SPX. 100% of the issues in the DJIA declined on Friday while 99% of the issues in the OEX and SPX declined on Friday. The 1% of advancing issues in the OEX and SPX must have accounted for less than 0.5% of all of the volume of the component issues in those indices. This phenomenon was not expressed in the small caps. In the R2K "only" 88% of the volume went to declining issues.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Will optimism turn to fear twisting holiday markets into "Twilight Zone"? Raymond Merriman's weekly comments
Raymond Merriman's weekly review and preview comments are always interesting - today's are no exception, given the strong market movements the past two days. Here are the insights he's sharing (you can always find these and more at his Merriman Market Analyst site, always included in the sites list at right):
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Comments for the Week Beginning November 30, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
Remember the Saturn-Pluto waning square of November 15, and the concern of Financial Astrologers that the U.S. stock markets did not decline into then? And the further disappointment that these equity markets didn’t plunge immediately afterwards? It seemed like Saturn in waning square to Pluto was going to be a non-event for stocks. All that changed on Thanksgiving Thursday as World Dubai requested a six-month standstill on payment of interest tied to its bonds. In other words, World Dubai cannot pay its debt obligations on time. This is not surprising to Financial Astrologers and readers of this column, for the big theme of Saturn square Pluto is…. debt! And if one looks at the chart of world stock indices, it will be quite evident that the yearly high in many of these indices was in fact the week of November 16 when the Saturn-Pluto square took place. The only major market that we track that made a high after November 16-18 was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which peaked last Monday, November 23, which was a huge lunar reversal date according to the weighted values for stocks given on our web site.
This is how economic crises start under Saturn-Pluto, if not under most major planetary signatures between outer planets. First, there is a default of a somewhat major country, bank or financial institution. The world is jarred by the debt repudiation, and financial markets plunge as investors rush to so-called “safe havens,” like the U.S. Dollar ands U.S. Treasuries. They sell stocks and precious metals in an effort raise cash, which just exaggerates the sudden and extreme movements. But then everything seems to return to normal for awhile, until the second big entity fails. Eventually that is sorted out, by then another follows. Eventually there are several that happen in short order and a panic ensues. You may remember this same scenario in 2008, when first it was Bear Sterns, then Countrywide Financial a few months later. And then all of sudden, it was Citibank, Merrill Lynch, AIG and others as the banking system started to hemorrhage.
As investors flocked to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil, Gold and especially Silver plunged, along with European currencies. Strangely enough, the Japanese Yen went up strongly against the Dollar.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The unexpected and sudden surprise of World Dubai Bank failing to meet its debt obligations on time is consistent with Uranus changing directions. On Tuesday, December 1, Uranus will end its retrograde motion and return to its direct motion. When a planet changes its directions like this, it is referred to as a “station” of that planet. The dynamics which are associated with a planet become highlighted during its station. In this case, Uranus pertains to sudden disruptions of the status quo. Oftentimes events happen which are considered as “shocks.” World Bank Dubai’s announcement is a “shock.”
The orb of influence of a stationary planet depends upon the speed of the planet. The further-out the planet, the longer its orb of influence in a station will last. In reviewing the history of markets, as outlined in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” a Uranus station can influence stock indices for as many as 12 days either side of the station date. The other thing to note is that any other planet in aspect to a stationary planet is also emphasized during that station. As Financial Astrologers know, the most powerful planetary aspect in the heavens right now is Saturn in opposition to Uranus. The 45-year “crisis” aspect is in force from November 4, 2008 through July 26, 2010. It is even more powerful than the 36-year Saturn-Pluto waning phase aspect, which is also in effect right now, October 29, 2009-August 21, 2010. Together, these two signatures form a T-square formation, and thus are destined to wield a turn in financial markets that will alter the way the world does business for a very long time. The themes are indeed crisis and debt, but also the possibility of brilliant innovations in science and technology.
Longer-Term Thoughts
Last week’s column stated, “The more important reversal signatures coming up will be Uranus turning directions, from retrograde to direct motion, on December 1, and then Mars turning retrograde, followed by the third and final conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune on December 20 and 21 respectively.” These are no ordinary times, for in addition to the long-term Saturn-Uranus and Saturn-Pluto aspects taking place, we have Jupiter conjunct Neptune also in force. This is a 14-year planetary cycle that coincides with irrational exuberance and optimism, when left alone from influence by other planets. However there can be a downside to Jupiter-Neptune too if a crisis arises. Instead of optimism and confidence, Jupiter can manifest as excess and exaggeration. Instead of faith and hope about the future, Neptune can manifest as loss of control. Together they can coincide with periods of hysteria and panic if things start to unravel.
Thus we wait and see if this development in Dubai is only a temporary setback and if investors will quickly return to the market, driving prices right back up into the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction of December 21. Or, will the crisis begin to escalate, causing investors to panic and withdraw their monies from equities, resulting in sharply falling stock and commodity prices into the holiday season. With Uranus station, you never know for certain which way it will manifest, for Uranus periods are very unpredictable. Financial markets can just as easily reverse as break out of expected support and resistance zones. Uranus has no respect for support or resistance, and in fact seems to delight in breaking any such boundaries. It is only when breaking through such boundaries that one experiences the freedom and inspiration of Uranus. Of course, it is also true that when you see these boundaries breaking, you can experience the sudden terror of having lost control. That latter phenomenon would just be exaggerated going into Jupiter conjunct Neptune. Let’s hope that this time the Uranus station is a reversal and not a break out to the downside, or it could become a very bizarre Christmas season…. sort of like “Christmas in the Twilight Zone,” with Santa Clause as zombie, or vampire.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report, and the MMA Japan Cycles Report, will be released this Monday-Tuesday to subscribers. Our apologies for the one week delay in order for us to complete the Forecast 2010 book on time. The book was completed and is now at the printer’s and due for release on December 15 as scheduled. So now the November issue of the MMA Cycles Report will be issued Monday November 30, via posting on our web site for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report will be issued one day later, December 1. This report covers our monthly analysis of the Japanese Nikkei Index, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen markets. For subscription information, please go to SERVICES at www.mmacycles.com.
The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2010 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF at http://www.mmacycles.com/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,161/Itemid,63/. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not send these by snail mail unless requested.
The first “Forecasts for 2010” presentation will take place on Sunday, December 20, 2009, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). It will be a world-wide webcast, much like last year’s, only this time you will be able to see the speaker, the slides, and hear the questions asked of other attendees. This “Virtual On-line Discussion and Forecasts for 2010 with Ray Merriman!” will take place via the modern technology of Vibation, Inc. You can log onto this discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2010, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, go to our website at www.mmacycles.com (it will be up sometime this week). Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before December 15), to guarantee your participation!!!
The first “live” public speech on Forecast 2010 will take place in Lansing, Michigan on January 3, 2010 at 1:00 PM. Contact 517-676-1680, or LCAstrology@cs.com for information. That will be followed by the presentation in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 16, 2010. Contact Schogt Market Timing for information at info@markettiming.nl or www.markettiming.nl or call 31-(0)-294-415-917. The next Forecast 2010 speech will be in Moscow, Russia on January 19, 2010. Contact www.urania.ru or Urania@urania.ru for further information and limited seating reservations. This will be followed by a presentation at the Swiss symposia in Zurich on January 23-24. Contact AstroData at info@mma-europe.ch, or www.mma-europe.ch or 41-(0)-43-343-33-66 for reservations and further information.
The Forecast 2010 book is now at the printer and on schedule for release on December 15. It is a good idea to order it before then because you will want to be in the first mailing that goes out, in order to make sure you receive it before Christmas. After the first week of December, new orders received may not get processed and distributed until the first mailing is completed, which usually takes 3-4 days. Additionally, these books have sold out by February in three of the last 4 years, and there are no reprints. When they are gone, they are gone, although you may be able to purchase them on “after market” web sites for about three times the retail price. Now that 2009 is nearly over, we can look back and see that the 2009 book has been one of the most accurate of all that have been written in the past 33 years. A list of many of those forecasts outlined in the 2009 book that have already come to pass is listed on our web site at www.mmacycles.com. And the critical reversal dates given for markets have been extremely accurate, including the high and low of the year in many.
For all of our subscribers in the New York and Boston areas, you may want to mark down two dates coming up: December 22, 2009 and March 1. These will be the next private meetings with MMA subscribers in the United States. The one in New York City will take place from 6:00 – 8:30 PM, on the Upper East Side, near Fifth Avenue and 84th Street. The exact location will be given upon placing your reservation. The one in Cambridge (near Boston) will take place at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, starting at either 11:00 AM or 1:00 PM (TBD), and again lasting about 2-1/2 hours. It will follow the NCGR conference on “Planetary Revolution: Geocosmic Alchemy II,” taking place February 25-28. There is no cost to attend these MMA discussions if you subscribe to a weekly or daily report, or if you have a yearly subscription to either MMA Cycles Report or the SOS Report. For all others, the cost to sit in will be $295.00. There is nothing as exciting and informative as a gathering with MMA subscribers (to me), because they come from very interesting walks of life, from the fields of finance, banking, government, military, intelligence agencies, academia, and astrology. There will also be discussion meetings with subscribers in Amsterdam (January 16) and Zurich (January 24).
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
We also have our new CD available: “The Cardinal Climax 2008-2015: Investment Opportunities and Dangers.” This 75-minute CD outlines the most powerful geocosmic configuration of our lifetime: The Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015. This presentation examines the historical, long-term geocosmic signatures that are present 2008-2015, how they correlated to economic crises in the past, and how they will likely impact various financial markets and investment opportunities this time. In fact, many of the themes are already underway. Approximately 75 minutes, with PDF file of charts used: $25.00 plus postage.
The DVD of the Financial Astrology workshop in Chicago is now available for purchase. The cost is $175.00 and includes a workbook of the graphics used in the class. Some people learn best with visuals like DVD’s, on courses like this one, and others learn best from books. But this workshop clearly lays out the basic methodology of combining cycles studies with geocosmic studies to forecast market trends as well as critical reversal dates for any market. The emphasis in this workshop was on the U.S. stock market and Gold. To order, contact our office at 1-248-626-3034 or email Amber at ordersmma@msn.com, or to go our web site at www.mmacycles.com.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2009; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl
Please note: This is not the same as our service titled "MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets" which is available by subscription only.
=============
Comments for the Week Beginning November 30, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
Remember the Saturn-Pluto waning square of November 15, and the concern of Financial Astrologers that the U.S. stock markets did not decline into then? And the further disappointment that these equity markets didn’t plunge immediately afterwards? It seemed like Saturn in waning square to Pluto was going to be a non-event for stocks. All that changed on Thanksgiving Thursday as World Dubai requested a six-month standstill on payment of interest tied to its bonds. In other words, World Dubai cannot pay its debt obligations on time. This is not surprising to Financial Astrologers and readers of this column, for the big theme of Saturn square Pluto is…. debt! And if one looks at the chart of world stock indices, it will be quite evident that the yearly high in many of these indices was in fact the week of November 16 when the Saturn-Pluto square took place. The only major market that we track that made a high after November 16-18 was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which peaked last Monday, November 23, which was a huge lunar reversal date according to the weighted values for stocks given on our web site.
This is how economic crises start under Saturn-Pluto, if not under most major planetary signatures between outer planets. First, there is a default of a somewhat major country, bank or financial institution. The world is jarred by the debt repudiation, and financial markets plunge as investors rush to so-called “safe havens,” like the U.S. Dollar ands U.S. Treasuries. They sell stocks and precious metals in an effort raise cash, which just exaggerates the sudden and extreme movements. But then everything seems to return to normal for awhile, until the second big entity fails. Eventually that is sorted out, by then another follows. Eventually there are several that happen in short order and a panic ensues. You may remember this same scenario in 2008, when first it was Bear Sterns, then Countrywide Financial a few months later. And then all of sudden, it was Citibank, Merrill Lynch, AIG and others as the banking system started to hemorrhage.
As investors flocked to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil, Gold and especially Silver plunged, along with European currencies. Strangely enough, the Japanese Yen went up strongly against the Dollar.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The unexpected and sudden surprise of World Dubai Bank failing to meet its debt obligations on time is consistent with Uranus changing directions. On Tuesday, December 1, Uranus will end its retrograde motion and return to its direct motion. When a planet changes its directions like this, it is referred to as a “station” of that planet. The dynamics which are associated with a planet become highlighted during its station. In this case, Uranus pertains to sudden disruptions of the status quo. Oftentimes events happen which are considered as “shocks.” World Bank Dubai’s announcement is a “shock.”
The orb of influence of a stationary planet depends upon the speed of the planet. The further-out the planet, the longer its orb of influence in a station will last. In reviewing the history of markets, as outlined in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” a Uranus station can influence stock indices for as many as 12 days either side of the station date. The other thing to note is that any other planet in aspect to a stationary planet is also emphasized during that station. As Financial Astrologers know, the most powerful planetary aspect in the heavens right now is Saturn in opposition to Uranus. The 45-year “crisis” aspect is in force from November 4, 2008 through July 26, 2010. It is even more powerful than the 36-year Saturn-Pluto waning phase aspect, which is also in effect right now, October 29, 2009-August 21, 2010. Together, these two signatures form a T-square formation, and thus are destined to wield a turn in financial markets that will alter the way the world does business for a very long time. The themes are indeed crisis and debt, but also the possibility of brilliant innovations in science and technology.
Longer-Term Thoughts
Last week’s column stated, “The more important reversal signatures coming up will be Uranus turning directions, from retrograde to direct motion, on December 1, and then Mars turning retrograde, followed by the third and final conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune on December 20 and 21 respectively.” These are no ordinary times, for in addition to the long-term Saturn-Uranus and Saturn-Pluto aspects taking place, we have Jupiter conjunct Neptune also in force. This is a 14-year planetary cycle that coincides with irrational exuberance and optimism, when left alone from influence by other planets. However there can be a downside to Jupiter-Neptune too if a crisis arises. Instead of optimism and confidence, Jupiter can manifest as excess and exaggeration. Instead of faith and hope about the future, Neptune can manifest as loss of control. Together they can coincide with periods of hysteria and panic if things start to unravel.
Thus we wait and see if this development in Dubai is only a temporary setback and if investors will quickly return to the market, driving prices right back up into the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction of December 21. Or, will the crisis begin to escalate, causing investors to panic and withdraw their monies from equities, resulting in sharply falling stock and commodity prices into the holiday season. With Uranus station, you never know for certain which way it will manifest, for Uranus periods are very unpredictable. Financial markets can just as easily reverse as break out of expected support and resistance zones. Uranus has no respect for support or resistance, and in fact seems to delight in breaking any such boundaries. It is only when breaking through such boundaries that one experiences the freedom and inspiration of Uranus. Of course, it is also true that when you see these boundaries breaking, you can experience the sudden terror of having lost control. That latter phenomenon would just be exaggerated going into Jupiter conjunct Neptune. Let’s hope that this time the Uranus station is a reversal and not a break out to the downside, or it could become a very bizarre Christmas season…. sort of like “Christmas in the Twilight Zone,” with Santa Clause as zombie, or vampire.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report, and the MMA Japan Cycles Report, will be released this Monday-Tuesday to subscribers. Our apologies for the one week delay in order for us to complete the Forecast 2010 book on time. The book was completed and is now at the printer’s and due for release on December 15 as scheduled. So now the November issue of the MMA Cycles Report will be issued Monday November 30, via posting on our web site for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report will be issued one day later, December 1. This report covers our monthly analysis of the Japanese Nikkei Index, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen markets. For subscription information, please go to SERVICES at www.mmacycles.com.
The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2010 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF at http://www.mmacycles.com/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,161/Itemid,63/. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not send these by snail mail unless requested.
The first “Forecasts for 2010” presentation will take place on Sunday, December 20, 2009, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). It will be a world-wide webcast, much like last year’s, only this time you will be able to see the speaker, the slides, and hear the questions asked of other attendees. This “Virtual On-line Discussion and Forecasts for 2010 with Ray Merriman!” will take place via the modern technology of Vibation, Inc. You can log onto this discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2010, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, go to our website at www.mmacycles.com (it will be up sometime this week). Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before December 15), to guarantee your participation!!!
The first “live” public speech on Forecast 2010 will take place in Lansing, Michigan on January 3, 2010 at 1:00 PM. Contact 517-676-1680, or LCAstrology@cs.com for information. That will be followed by the presentation in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 16, 2010. Contact Schogt Market Timing for information at info@markettiming.nl or www.markettiming.nl or call 31-(0)-294-415-917. The next Forecast 2010 speech will be in Moscow, Russia on January 19, 2010. Contact www.urania.ru or Urania@urania.ru for further information and limited seating reservations. This will be followed by a presentation at the Swiss symposia in Zurich on January 23-24. Contact AstroData at info@mma-europe.ch, or www.mma-europe.ch or 41-(0)-43-343-33-66 for reservations and further information.
The Forecast 2010 book is now at the printer and on schedule for release on December 15. It is a good idea to order it before then because you will want to be in the first mailing that goes out, in order to make sure you receive it before Christmas. After the first week of December, new orders received may not get processed and distributed until the first mailing is completed, which usually takes 3-4 days. Additionally, these books have sold out by February in three of the last 4 years, and there are no reprints. When they are gone, they are gone, although you may be able to purchase them on “after market” web sites for about three times the retail price. Now that 2009 is nearly over, we can look back and see that the 2009 book has been one of the most accurate of all that have been written in the past 33 years. A list of many of those forecasts outlined in the 2009 book that have already come to pass is listed on our web site at www.mmacycles.com. And the critical reversal dates given for markets have been extremely accurate, including the high and low of the year in many.
For all of our subscribers in the New York and Boston areas, you may want to mark down two dates coming up: December 22, 2009 and March 1. These will be the next private meetings with MMA subscribers in the United States. The one in New York City will take place from 6:00 – 8:30 PM, on the Upper East Side, near Fifth Avenue and 84th Street. The exact location will be given upon placing your reservation. The one in Cambridge (near Boston) will take place at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, starting at either 11:00 AM or 1:00 PM (TBD), and again lasting about 2-1/2 hours. It will follow the NCGR conference on “Planetary Revolution: Geocosmic Alchemy II,” taking place February 25-28. There is no cost to attend these MMA discussions if you subscribe to a weekly or daily report, or if you have a yearly subscription to either MMA Cycles Report or the SOS Report. For all others, the cost to sit in will be $295.00. There is nothing as exciting and informative as a gathering with MMA subscribers (to me), because they come from very interesting walks of life, from the fields of finance, banking, government, military, intelligence agencies, academia, and astrology. There will also be discussion meetings with subscribers in Amsterdam (January 16) and Zurich (January 24).
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
We also have our new CD available: “The Cardinal Climax 2008-2015: Investment Opportunities and Dangers.” This 75-minute CD outlines the most powerful geocosmic configuration of our lifetime: The Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015. This presentation examines the historical, long-term geocosmic signatures that are present 2008-2015, how they correlated to economic crises in the past, and how they will likely impact various financial markets and investment opportunities this time. In fact, many of the themes are already underway. Approximately 75 minutes, with PDF file of charts used: $25.00 plus postage.
The DVD of the Financial Astrology workshop in Chicago is now available for purchase. The cost is $175.00 and includes a workbook of the graphics used in the class. Some people learn best with visuals like DVD’s, on courses like this one, and others learn best from books. But this workshop clearly lays out the basic methodology of combining cycles studies with geocosmic studies to forecast market trends as well as critical reversal dates for any market. The emphasis in this workshop was on the U.S. stock market and Gold. To order, contact our office at 1-248-626-3034 or email Amber at ordersmma@msn.com, or to go our web site at www.mmacycles.com.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2009; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl
Please note: This is not the same as our service titled "MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets" which is available by subscription only.
Markets' tumble easier to blame on Dubai to avoid these bearish prospects
Of course it's easier to blame Dubai than Finonacci for the market turmoil the past two days. The rally intraday was impressive for those able to fade the markets' opening levels. But the rally stalled at levels that could mark simply a wave 2 pullback if the drop was itself just a wave 1 of something much bigger to come (like the C wave we've been expecting). Was this the first step down after the rally crest? It's very tempting to say yes. But ... let's take a look at some bull vs. bear factors to consider:
1. Bullish that today during the US market open, volume wasn't too bad and price actually moved up most of the day.
2. Bullish that leading indices like the Dow (see DIA chart below) didn't fall too far and bounced from nearby moving averages.
3. Bearish that many other indices and sectors like the broader Russell 2000 are relative lower and weaker.
4. Bullish that the TRIN popped higher with its 10-day moving average over 1.20 (although its inventor Richard Arms, as quoted from an article mentioned here about a week ago, believes the stock markets overbought).
5. Bearish that the turmoil resulted in possible reversals from important Fibonacci levels in many assets - Dow 10,334; $USD 74.75; gold $1192; QQQQ $43.30; the RUT already reacted back from $595.
6. Bearish that volume was actually relatively strong on a US holiday-shortened session, with indicators threatening to roll down.
All investors and traders must remember that any trend reversal must be confirmed. And that one or even two days don't make a reversal (not unless you're working Fibonacci patterns and being agressive while ready to activate stop loss orders if the pattern is violated). As I've explained, it's permissible to have price exceed a Fibonacci target, even by a whole day - once. After that, if price has reversed back across that line - as it did yesterday and today (and previously had done in the RUT) - then I really don't want to see it close past the line again, certainly not by making a new high/low. So as a tradet who relies on Fibonacci levels as a key tool, I really want to see this week's extremes respected by subsequent action as part of confirming that the trends are changing.
We'll also want trend reversal patterns to print out which will take at least a week to assess. Meantime I'm sure we'll have a lot to analyze this weekend. Another note - this is a prime example why it's difficult to trade when all seems down but the intraday is a rally, then leaves you wondering which way next. So we'll do our best to analyze the probabilities. Enjoy your (holiday) Friday evening!
1. Bullish that today during the US market open, volume wasn't too bad and price actually moved up most of the day.
2. Bullish that leading indices like the Dow (see DIA chart below) didn't fall too far and bounced from nearby moving averages.
3. Bearish that many other indices and sectors like the broader Russell 2000 are relative lower and weaker.
4. Bullish that the TRIN popped higher with its 10-day moving average over 1.20 (although its inventor Richard Arms, as quoted from an article mentioned here about a week ago, believes the stock markets overbought).
5. Bearish that the turmoil resulted in possible reversals from important Fibonacci levels in many assets - Dow 10,334; $USD 74.75; gold $1192; QQQQ $43.30; the RUT already reacted back from $595.
6. Bearish that volume was actually relatively strong on a US holiday-shortened session, with indicators threatening to roll down.
All investors and traders must remember that any trend reversal must be confirmed. And that one or even two days don't make a reversal (not unless you're working Fibonacci patterns and being agressive while ready to activate stop loss orders if the pattern is violated). As I've explained, it's permissible to have price exceed a Fibonacci target, even by a whole day - once. After that, if price has reversed back across that line - as it did yesterday and today (and previously had done in the RUT) - then I really don't want to see it close past the line again, certainly not by making a new high/low. So as a tradet who relies on Fibonacci levels as a key tool, I really want to see this week's extremes respected by subsequent action as part of confirming that the trends are changing.
We'll also want trend reversal patterns to print out which will take at least a week to assess. Meantime I'm sure we'll have a lot to analyze this weekend. Another note - this is a prime example why it's difficult to trade when all seems down but the intraday is a rally, then leaves you wondering which way next. So we'll do our best to analyze the probabilities. Enjoy your (holiday) Friday evening!
"Red the new black on Black Friday" as power of Fibonacci works
Oh say can you "C" the power of Fibonacci for a turn in the dollar, gold, and equities (including the Dow, QQQQ and Russell 2000)? With the consequences in other markets? You can say that it's Dubai that's putting the "goodbye" into rallies fueled by dollar weakness. But readers know that the dollar hit a Fibonacci support, and the yen broke put. Well there's more to post so I'll be quick. Look at the charts below, you'll see an air pocket under SPX 1082 down toward 1070. One reason why we've been focused on whether 1082 would hold. Too early to see if it will hold today but it might provide a bounce. Maybe we'll see the QQQQ try for 43.30 and SPX try for 1087; don't know yet if we'll get past those today, or just roll over again for possible lower. Next question is will there be an unfilled gap from SPX 1100. Other places to look obviously are the levels about 10,334 in the Dow, and 43.30 in the QQQQ. It seems quite risky to get seriously long under those levels, so an intraday bounce should be considered merely an intraday scalp unless somehow the rally re-asserts itself. This weekend we'll look more at analysis whether the rally B up is down and now time to sell rallies for C down.
Note - gaps typically occur in Elliott Wave third and "c" waves. Given the size of this morning's gap down, daytraders can look to see where there may be a 3rd wave, 4th and then completion move down that might be scalped for a bounce up. But I'll point out the obvious, this is a big gap after some big Fibs and could be difficult to play today. So if you're trying to, I must recommend smaller position size and VERY good stop management - don't let losses accumulate!
I actually received a shopping promo email titled "Red is the new black on 'Black Friday'" and of course made me laugh so borrowed it. Since I was already thinking on the funny mix between the Black Friday name, and Black Monday from 1987. Not that the markets should fall far today. But my reference to "C" is to the idea of kicking off the C wave down that frankly we've been looking for. The last rally that the Dow needed threw some bears off the scent but the Dow needed to get to its own Fibonacci 50% retrace which was also in a cycle crest time and Gann window for it (50% retrace in 50% of the time it took for the drop from October 2007).
On gold, the matter of the long-term Fibonacci at 1192 does suggest it might go into a large 4th wave consolidation. That's not a guarantee and it could be a smaller-level consolidation. But given the size of the drop already - we may have to consider if it'll be a larger level correction. For the that, we'd expect it to remain above the $780/800 area (if it broke that, more bearish but let's not assume that). There's an alternate view that 1192 topped a B wave for gold with C down to retest 681, and we'll know if that's the right view if it looks like a strong impulse 5-wave move down. Gives us something to watch in gold. There's conventional price support at 1033 and further below at 1000 if needed for now; before that we'll see if the uptrend channel gives support. (But if you shorted the 1192 "ka-ching" Fibonacci, then you're not feeling any pain right now!)
I've gotta look for ChartsEdge but meantime remember - today's a shortened trading day. Traders will want to see how much short-covering bounce we get, and where it may show. Their weekly indicated some bounce so we'll have to see if the daily maps agree.
On currencies, we know the dollar is reacting from the 74.75 $USD test as it should. We'll see if it can get back to a 50% retrace up at 82 or if another pattern sets in over coming days. As for the yen, the chart indicates it should continue upward, so it'll just be interesting to see how that works out for the dollar-yen pair! Wish I had some insight on that aspect, since the $XJY chart is quite positive for the yen.
Note - gaps typically occur in Elliott Wave third and "c" waves. Given the size of this morning's gap down, daytraders can look to see where there may be a 3rd wave, 4th and then completion move down that might be scalped for a bounce up. But I'll point out the obvious, this is a big gap after some big Fibs and could be difficult to play today. So if you're trying to, I must recommend smaller position size and VERY good stop management - don't let losses accumulate!
I actually received a shopping promo email titled "Red is the new black on 'Black Friday'" and of course made me laugh so borrowed it. Since I was already thinking on the funny mix between the Black Friday name, and Black Monday from 1987. Not that the markets should fall far today. But my reference to "C" is to the idea of kicking off the C wave down that frankly we've been looking for. The last rally that the Dow needed threw some bears off the scent but the Dow needed to get to its own Fibonacci 50% retrace which was also in a cycle crest time and Gann window for it (50% retrace in 50% of the time it took for the drop from October 2007).
On gold, the matter of the long-term Fibonacci at 1192 does suggest it might go into a large 4th wave consolidation. That's not a guarantee and it could be a smaller-level consolidation. But given the size of the drop already - we may have to consider if it'll be a larger level correction. For the that, we'd expect it to remain above the $780/800 area (if it broke that, more bearish but let's not assume that). There's an alternate view that 1192 topped a B wave for gold with C down to retest 681, and we'll know if that's the right view if it looks like a strong impulse 5-wave move down. Gives us something to watch in gold. There's conventional price support at 1033 and further below at 1000 if needed for now; before that we'll see if the uptrend channel gives support. (But if you shorted the 1192 "ka-ching" Fibonacci, then you're not feeling any pain right now!)
I've gotta look for ChartsEdge but meantime remember - today's a shortened trading day. Traders will want to see how much short-covering bounce we get, and where it may show. Their weekly indicated some bounce so we'll have to see if the daily maps agree.
On currencies, we know the dollar is reacting from the 74.75 $USD test as it should. We'll see if it can get back to a 50% retrace up at 82 or if another pattern sets in over coming days. As for the yen, the chart indicates it should continue upward, so it'll just be interesting to see how that works out for the dollar-yen pair! Wish I had some insight on that aspect, since the $XJY chart is quite positive for the yen.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
ChartsEdge equities cycle view for 11/26 and Happy Thanksgiving!
Here's the ChartsEdge weekly cycle for the S&P 500, with the idea it gives some cycles indications today for anyone who doesn't enjoy an equities market holiday today (remember you can always locate using the "ChartsEdge weekly" label). Looking at the futures confirms the sense that yesterday may have already seen the rise indicated for Thanksgiving Thursday. It's a reminder too of how this was different from the ChartsEdge daily map indications yesterday (always remember to consider this with the daily maps - yesterday, Mike's comment with the map pointed it out). Working around the holiday it seems. Going under SPX 1100 is a bearish indication, and under 1082 would be more concerning for further rally prospects. Meantime if you're not having to trade, please enjoy time with those close to you! So here's that ChartsEdge weekly cycle forecast again:
And for everyone whether in the U.S. or anywhere - since the idea of Thanksgiving is to appreciate and give thanks for all the good things - family, friends, sufficiency, charity, and the myriad aspects of life:
And for everyone whether in the U.S. or anywhere - since the idea of Thanksgiving is to appreciate and give thanks for all the good things - family, friends, sufficiency, charity, and the myriad aspects of life:
Thanksgiving holiday update from Tony Caldaro at the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
Tony Caldaro posted the below holiday update of Objective Elliott Wave at his http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ site (thanks Tony!):
November 26
holiday update
SHORT TERM: markets decline worldwide on Dubai debt problems, (DOW mini) YM -181
Overnight the following was released by Reuters:http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5AN54C20091126?feedType=nl&feedName=usbeforethebell. Thank you Martin. In response to the news all the Asian markets were lower, with the biggest decline in China (-3.6%). Europe opened lower and closed -3.20%. US index futures traded lower overnight: ES (SPX mini) -24, YM (DOW mini) -181 and NQ (NDX mini) -45. Bonds rose 21 ticks, Crude lost $1.75, Gold slipped $4.00, and the USD was higher. The JPY appeared to be the biggest winner in the FOREX market.
Tomorrow most of the markets will be open in the US. Should today's futures selling hold into tomorrow's open, the SPX will likely break the 1090 pivot signalling a resumption of downside momentum short term. Below is a chart of the action in ES over the past week. All the best to you and yours on this holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally
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