Here are Raymond Merriman's public comments for the week ahead, which you can always find along with other public portions of his articles and commentaries at Merriman Market Analysis (MMAcycles.com) [included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page here]:
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Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning August 3, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The post Jupiter-Neptune conjunction euphoria continues as many world equity indices accelerated last week to new highs for this year. The cluster of several Venus signatures present July 21-28 only caused the market’s “bullet train” to pause for a brief rest after last Monday. By Thursday, it was all gassed up and off to the next leg of its race to the crest of the 4-year cycle.
This rally since the second passage (of three) of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction on July 10 has been impressive. In almost all indices, prices have risen at least 14% in the past two-three weeks. In fact, if we take the starting point as the Venus retrograded low of March 6, the rally in world equity prices have been extremely impressive. All we have to do next week is to make yet another new high for this year and we will qualify our minimum time objective for a 4-year cycle crest. As stated in this year’s Forecast for 2009 book, written in November 2008, “…a 4- and 6-year cycle low may be completed anytime before May 2009… Once that low is in, look for a very healthy 5-16 month rally for the crest of the new 4- and 6-year cycle.” What constitutes a healthy rally to the crest of a 4-year cycle? Well, as documented in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes,” of the 28 four-year cycles in the DJIA since 1893, there were only 5 cases where the rally failed to gain of at least 50%. Last Thursday’s high of 9246 now represents an appreciation of 42.9% from the 6470 low of March 6. We are getting close. But if we examine other indexes of the world, we will see many have already satisfied this condition. And Monday, August 3, will start the fifth month, which begins the minimum time band for the 4-year cycle crest to be met as well.
The NASDAQ Composite has already made the minimum price criteria we have established for the 4-year cycle in stocks. From its low of 1265 on March 9 to its 2009 high so far last Thursday, it has appreciated 58.8%. Brazil’s Bovespa has appreciated 54.2% in the same time frame. But the stellar performer in the America’s has been Argentina’s Merval Index, which has soared over 90% from a low of 914 on March 3 to Friday’s high of 1738.
In Europe, the German DAX has been the best performer, rising from a 4-year cycle low of 3558 on March 9 to a high of 5396 last Thursday, for a gain of 51.6%. The Netherlands AEX and the Swiss SMI indices are closer to the DJIA, up 45.8% and 41.1% respectively from their 4-year cycle troughs of March 9. Lagging far behind, however, is London’s FTSE index. Its new multi-month high of 4646 last Thursday represents an increase of only 34.2% from its low of March 9.
Asia and the Pacific Rim have mixed results. Australia’s All Ordinaries has been the laggard, posting gains of only 35.6% from its 3090 low of March 10 to Friday’s high of 4251. Japan’s Nikkei has now risen from a low of 7021 on March 10 to a high of 10,359 on Friday of last week, for a gain of 47.5%. It is nearly to our minimum criterion of 50%. But the Hang Seng of Hong Kong and Nifty Index of India have been outstanding, posting gains of 82.5% and 83.9% respectively from their lows of March 6-9 to their highs of last week. In the case of the NIFTY, last week’s high wasn’t even a new multi-month high. It is still slightly below its high of June 12.
Even though the equity markets failed to reverse significantly under onslaught of Venus signature early last week, several other markets did. Gold and Silver, for instance, fell sharply from their highs of last Monday through Wednesday’s low. Gold fell from 960 to 925, and Silver from 1409 to 1316. The Euro currency and Swiss Franc also fell sharply over the same two days. For that matter, so did Crude Oil which dropped from 68.99 on Monday to 62.76 on Thursday. But by Thursday, each of these commenced another sharp rally, albeit not to new weekly highs.
Short-Term Geocosmics
What does this rally in world equity markets tell us from the perspective of Financial Astrology? It suggests that the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in Aquarius (May-December 2009), in mutual reception to Uranus in Pisces (January 2009-January 2010), has been a correlate of great hope regarding the economic and banking crisis that struck the world just prior to the Saturn-Uranus opposition (November 2008-July 2010). Two of the three passes of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction have now been completed as of July 10, and the market is still rising. That may be due to the fact that first Venus, then the Sun and Mars, are still making a “translation” to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Venus did so last week, while both the Sun and Mars will do so August 13-17.
After that, we head back into the minefield of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, which happens five times between November 4, 2008 and July 26, 2010. The third of the five passages of this 45-year cycle will unfold on September 15, with the new moon hitting that opposition just three days later. The first two passages (November 4, 20087 and February 5, 2009) coincided with what cycles’ analysts would label a “major cycle crest.” They were highs from which severe 3-4 week declines followed, and the DJIA dropped approximately 2000 points both times.
Longer-Term Thoughts
You read it here first. You may have even read in the “Forecast 2008” book, published in late 2007. The Federal Reserve Board and its Chairman Ben Bernanke are in trouble.
Just a few weeks ago, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas sponsored House Resolution 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, a bill designed to audit – and with the purpose of eliminating - the FRB. It was passed in June. Shortly thereafter, Bernanke was called to testify before Congress on his role in the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the possible forced sell out of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. He was treated very harshly by Congress, and some also wanted to know what happened to trillions of dollars the Fed spent during that crisis, even as President Obama was – and apparently still is – seeking to increase the powers of the FRB. Bernanke has recently stated that “I don’t think American people want Congress running monetary policy.” True enough, probably. But then this week, Rasmussen Reports conducted a national survey that finds “…. 75% of Americans favor auditing the Federal Reserve and making the results available to the public. Just nine percent (9%) of adults think that’s bad idea and oppose it.”
But… Pluto is on the Federal Reserve Board’s Sun opposite its natal Pluto (December 23, 1913, 6:02 PM, Washington D.C., according to the New York Times the next day). Pluto rules debt and taxes, and the threat of termination of an effort. It also rules audits, where the investigating agency wants to know how the funds were spent. The only way out is to be completely open and transparent, something that is not the nature of an entity whose natal Moon is in Scorpio, and natal Sun in hard aspect to Pluto, such as the FRB. To the contrary, the Federal Reserve Board is known for its secrecy and its independence, and both are seriously being questioned now.
Will the FRB and Bernanke survive this transit? I am not optimistic, given that Saturn and Uranus will next form a grand square to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition, late 2009 through much of 2010. And Bernanke’s term comes up for reappointment in January 2010.
Clients ask me, “What could cause another financial and market plunge in the near future?” This is one very possible cause. Imagine a Federal Reserve Board with expanded powers. And then imagine the current Chair of the Federal Reserve Board not being reappointed by the President, and in his place someone who has close ties to the White House and/or Congress is appointed. How do you think the global markets would react? I think you would see something akin to huge sucking sound occurring. That would be sound of the Dollar as it plummets on world markets against other currencies, and as the foreign investors (and nations) suddenly try to move their investments in the U.S. to newly defined “safe havens.” November 2009 through August 2010 – astrologically it has the potential to be a redefining period in the direction of the U.S, economy. It can be the end to this terrible recession, or it can be the start of the next big leg down, depending on what decisions our leaders make. And the Federal Reserve Board may be the key to all of it. After all, he who controls the money has the real power.
Readers may be interested in reading an interview of me that appeared at bankrate.com. http://www.bankrate.com/finance/personal-finance/sage-of-aquarius-sees-epic-bear-loss.aspx.
Announcements
The ISAR 2009 conference will take place in two weeks! To me, this is the most exciting conference of the year, especially for those interested in all kinds of astrology, but especially Financial Astrology. Attendance is expected to be about 500-600 people, from all over the world. These are professional astrologers and people of integrity and skill – not “fortune-tellers” and entertainers. If you are interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, this fantastic conference in Astrology is the place to go. It will take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers like Christeen Skinner, Grace Morris, Roy Gillett, and myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology, specializing in the Stock and Gold markets, on Monday, August 24. This is a great way to learn the basics of Financial Astrology combined with technical and cyclical analysis of financial markets. For more information, and registration, please go to http://www.isar2009.com/.
The “SOS Global Market Cycles Report” will come out this week, Tuesday, August 4. And it will be out one day later in German to our German & Swiss SOS subscribers (please go to http://www.mma-europe.ch/ to order the German version of SOS). This SOS monthly report addresses the long- and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the “big picture” ahead, like where we are now in terms of the 72-, 18-, 4-year, and 50-week cycles. It also discusses the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the DJIA, German DAX, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. The German edition also covers the Swiss Market Index (SMI). It also includes 3-star critical reversal dates for stock indices and a list of the major geocosmic signatures in effect for the following month, with their appropriate C/S values. For information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/catalogue/services/the-sos-stock-market-cycles/.
The monthly MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Cycles Reports came out last week. The “MMA Cycles Report” is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds. If you are a subscriber and did not get this issue, please contract us at once. For more information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/services/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
Stay tuned to these pages for an announcement on the annual pre-publication special offer for the Forecast 2010 book, coming in the next few weeks. Once the announcement is made, we will begin to take orders for this book that has sold out the past three years. Order early and make sure you get next year’s Forecasts!
We are pleased to announce our new official Japanese web site at http://merriman.jp/. Here you can read our free weekly report in Japanese every week. You can purchase several of our books and subscription reports in Japanese, including or new weekly Gold report, Cash Currencies report, and both the MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Markets Cycles reports. If you read Japanese, please feel free to check out this new site, created by Toshi Nippou Ltd. of Tokyo.
We are also pleased to announce the formation of our new Weekly Cash Currencies Report in English, to start the first week of June 2009. This report will cover our weekly analysis of cash Euro Currency, the Dollar-Yen, and the Euro-Dollar markets. For further in formation on this new subscription report, please visit www.mmacycles.com, and look under SERVICES.
The German version of “Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics” is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at http://www.mma-europe.ch/.
We have a valuable new feature to our web site. Now, on the very front page, you can get a daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Silver market, via the studies conducted in “The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles,” and “The Sun, Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader.” These are the studies I use personally for short-term trading of stock index futures, ETFs (like DIA and Silver fund), and Silver futures. Anything over 100 means it has an above-average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/, and just check it out on the top of the page.
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This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Corporate bonds have moved from "fire sale" to "on fire" - but the LQD and HYG charts are moving to overbought levels
Faith in the economic system is definitely showing up in the corporate bond ETFs, both LQD for investment grade corporate bonds, and even in HYG for the high-yielding bonds. I've included daily charts of each (at right), and below are weekly charts of each.On the weekly charts in particular, you can see that LQD has (not surprisingly) shown more relative strength, reaching even higher levels than seen during 2007. HYG has retraced a little over 78.6 percent back to its highest levels of 2007.
The chart pattern is beginning to look a little hot - a little parabolic - but not totally, screamingly so. Still, I made notes on the LQD chart of Fibonacci extension levels, just in case LQD does go a little higher to reach a level where it may peak out. Going along with that idea, you can see that the standard RSI readings for both have now moved above 70, meaning they can be considered overbought. This is true for both, on the daily charts; and for LQD, on the weekly chart too.
If they do pull back, then moving average support as well as levels I've suggested for HYG on the weekly chart may be places to look for support.If LQD really is making a reverse symmetrical triangle (which is not always an Elliott Wave pattern) on the weekly chart, then it could be susceptible to a very good pullback. I'd like to see it test a bit higher to one of the Fibonacci level I annotated onto that chart, first. Then of course the next step would be a chart pattern with a trigger bar suggesting either a pullback or a trend reversal.
Given the recent volumes, it would take some noticeably heavier selling volumes on down days to mark a chart pattern as a trend reversal.
But as always, first things first - look for LQD to, ideally, move higher about $108/110 area, and then start to weaken. As for HYG, given that it's reached a significant Fibonacci level, it should weaken sooner ... and, if HYG does slow down, but then come back to this level, then perhaps it has higher levels too. I'm hard put to think of what economic conditions might cause that to happen. Perhaps the better question is, if and when these do start to roll over, what are the target levels below? And the answer to that will be partly a matter of the Fibonacci and chart patterns, and partly of the economic conditions we seem to be facing in the months ahead.
Dollar up - or down? Euro and Yen - down, or up? What about gold? Emphatically "yes" to all of the above!
Dollar way up! Dollar way down! -- Since last weekend, when I was once again pointing out to watch currences - and Raymond Merriman's weekend comments mentioned some strong movements likely ahead in currencies - the dollar moved strongly up, with euro and yen strongly down. Then Wednesday I pointed out that they were reaching resistance/support levels ... then yesterday and especially today, they moved strongly again - dollar way down! With movement up in euro, yen and gold ... but not to new highs there - yet. After we take our anti-vertigo remedies, how to we interpret all this?!While the wave pattern in the dollar became choppy, it does look like the drop today can be a wave 3 of 5 to place the dollar closer to completing a cycle low. Today's low of $78.22 still did not test onto the $77.92 level that I've shown as a Fibonacci .618 retracement level on the $USD monthly chart. Toss in the fact that euro, yen, and gold did not make new highs (yet!), and I've got to question whether this isn't just edging closer to an important low that may be close by.
The technical indicators are not slam-dunk, but you do see positive RSI and MACD divergence on the $USD daily chart, and slow stochastics having moved up with this being a possible kissback. The same might be true in reverse for the euro. As for the yen, it narrowly missed losing support and moved up smartly again, and I don't know how much longer it can flirt with the bullish vs. bearish scenarios. I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt, once again, so long as it respects prior swing lows which have now provided a closer-by support level at the lows of yesterday and today. For the bearish case, when it moved up smartly recently it was to the .618 retrace to its highs around $112, so falling from that didn't look good. For the bullish case, it did not lose support on this drop, and the series of three wave up that it's made from its lows can be interpreted as a leading diagonal or very similar; point being, it can still have a third wave or "C" wave ahead of it to try retaking the $111.49 pivot and even new highs.
I've included a chart of GLD below (as the $GOLD chart wasn't updated yet at Stockcharts.com) and wow! what a move today. It still did not place gold above the $960 level that I've mentioned, which would focus it toward $990 and then of course above that are new highs. Maybe it does, and maybe it doesn't, and here once again I've got to point out that the bearish scenario remains viable and the indicators such as the slow stochastics can be read bearishly with this being a kissback. Don't get me wrong, I'll jump in big-time if I think gold is going to rocket up to new highs! But it's meandered too much, and kept the bearish scenario viable for too long, for me to feel all warm and fuzzy about being bullish on gold without real price proof. This is definitely a time when I will let "price [be] the ultimate indicator."
(click any image to see it larger or more clearly)
DAG may be a dog to some, but it can be a "good dawg" for a while!
DAG as an ETF may have its shortcomings, as some of my readers have rightly pointed out - including that it doesn't track right on just the corn and soybean commodities but others as well, plus may not give investors the same kind of tax treatment (though for those using options, well, you don't have to worry about taxes at all do you! (though options have their own pitfalls)). After Raymond Merriman suggested potential in this sector, I've posted the DAG chart and followed it. So by all means, you may rather trade the underlying as you see fit, but for KI$$ purposes I'm just as happy to use the DAG chart and let people know that if you're into simple things like ETF/ETN's (or options), this one's moving and may have higher potential particularly if it clears $12.50.I don't want to see it fall under $9.00, or below that $8.50 or absolutely $8.00. So exiting (stop loss) would be reasonable in those areas.
Given the volumes showing up on the daily chart at upper right - and even the weekly chart, below - it's looking like this one might do better than a simple pullback toward that $12.50 level. Still, it's nearing chart resistance, so some might wish to take partial profits and/or tighten stops on all or part of the position in order to lock in some profits if price starts to weaken. (As I always say - how one trades is a matter of time frame and style, and not something I get involved with giving recommendations about for the most part.) There's no guarantee that DAG will make it all the way back to $12.50, so this chart resistance area - where the 50-day moving average will be soon - can be an acceptable place for some profit taking, and just exactly where may also depend on whether you're looking for a trigger bar on the hourly vs. daily charts.
Just for the record - no actual dawgs were harmed in the making of this post. Although some actual corn sounds like a nice side dish with dinner tonight!
Natural gas will be an easy buy/hold decision so long as it remains above Wednesday's low
Natural gas retains bullish potential as it redeemed itself yesterday. The price level as represented by the UNG exchange-traded fund gave natgas bulls (or wannabe bulls) a scare a couple of days ago as it tested back, but did not break the $12.20 level I've described numerous times before. It actually did poke under a Fibonacci .618 retracement price level of $12.71, reaching $12.32 at Wednesday's low. Then yesterday it popped up again, above Wednesday's high, making it a valid candidate as a trigger day. Then made an inside day today (see chart at right). Whew!The volumes on the rise from $11.91 never picked up to a level I'd be happy with, so I cannot pretend to feel wildly bullish on this. But the selling volumes the past several days weren't too heavy either. From an Elliott Wave chart pattern perspective, the price can have completed a first wave up and second wave pullback, giving it room to work on another wave up (hopefully a third wave, otherwise at least a "C" wave or a wave 1 of 3 upward).
The $NATGAS chart hasn't updated at Stockcharts.com as of the time I'm posting this, so you'll have to imagine the inside day appearing on the daily and weekly charts (below). What you can see is that, like the chart of UNG, the indicators do have positive aspects even if they aren't all chiming in quite yet. It's pretty easy and obvious - and from the chart and Elliott Wave perspective, quite correct - to say that the bulls can run with natural gas and UNG, so long as the price remains above Wednesday's low. The risk reward therefore looks good, as there's plenty of room above from the big picture for the price to move higher. There's obvious price resistance about $4.50 in the $NATGAS chart, and if it gets past that, then about $5.50. That would still be a good move up.
It's also interesting to see that $NATGAS did a better job than UNG of moving back to its triangle apex. UNG was barely able to hold $14.00 even intraday! Maybe it signals something different about the fundamentals for the underlying, futures and spot/cash - or maybe it's simply that speculators who piled in with the ETF were only too glad to cash out after having been scared from the triangle head-fake. It really doesn't matter for trading purposes. The Wedneday low's gotta hold whether you're in $NATGAS or in UNG.
In fact, the make-or-break level is so close by, and so easy to monitor on your own, that it's now easier to put this into the "KI$$" category!
Biotech taking a breather but it's well-deserved; may be next good opportunity after consolidation
Biotech as represented by the $BTK chart might look like it's losing momentum on the daily chart - and it is, if you look at that (at right) ... but the bigger picture on the weekly chart (below) shows it's just been tagging the high levels of 2008! The weekly chart also shows good momentum on the Stoch RSI. So whether you call it a cup and handle, or a wave 3 in EW terms for the next movement up, there's a good chance that it's only going into a consolidation or perhaps corrective phase that will set the stage for its next move up.Obviously there's chart support at $700 in the BTK chart, if it goes that low; although I'd be surprised to see it pull back deeper than $775 (based on chart pattern and rising 20-day moving average (DMA) which should be there soon). There's also that 50 DMA, of course, already about $700 and rising. Given biotech's momentum, it's also reasonable to look for the 13-day exponential moving average (currently at 820) to provide near-term support.
Banks busting upward looking cautiously bullish, may want breakout although not quite there
A couple of weeks ago I pointed out that the banking sector was poised to head more decisively either up or down, and warned not to be complacent about which direction. Now that the banks look ready to join the "breakout party," they have been lending more support to the broader indices in moving higher. I wish I could report that they are "out of the woods" but from a chart pattern perspective, the BKX really needs to push somewhat higher to give more assurance that the lows aren't revisited anytime soon. Still, the indicators look good (see BKX chart at right), and buying volumes have picked up on the KBE exchange-traded fund (chart below).I don't know that a massive commitment to buying this sector is the right thing to do at the moment, but there's certainly no reason I can see for doing the opposite either. It would not be unreasonable to take a positive stance, backstopped at the level that currently marks the 50-day moving average or recent swing low (really, a range of $34-37 in BKX).
Oil, gold and euro up, dollar tanking - on a Friday!
Oil's moving up as indicated by USO intraday (chart at right) which is above its 50-day moving average again. Gasoline already pulled to a similar level yesterday so might be pulling oil along in some way. But notice also that the dollar is tanking today, while gold has spiked up to tickle once again that key level about $958.Is this the turn that puts oil bullish again, with a goal about $85 as Goldman Sachs has targeted? With gold shooting to new highs, and the dollar breaking to new lows? It's the kind of question that one hates to try answering on a Friday! Manfred Zimmel of amanita.net issued his newsletter stating that the deflationary thesis should be disregarded. And I acknowledge that, now that the Dow Industrials (and perhaps Transports soon) have gone above January's high, I'll owe a big-picture review of the bullish scenarios.
I would also prefer to see whether, or not, the dollar loses support at or just under 77.92 which is the key Fibonacci retrace I've mentioned before. So far it has not tested that level today. So, as "stick in the mud" as this might sound with today's eye-opening movements - I still also want to see gold break over $960, the dollar break under 77.90, and oil move to new highs, to embrace more fully the bullish picture. Well obviously, seeing the QQQQ's put behind $39.82 and similar levels for the equities indices would be nice too.
At least we can say that oil seems on the way to doing its part! Obviously, if it loses support such as USO at its nearby 50-day moving average, then it would look bearish again, especially if accompanied by the dollar making a key trend reversal. It's just that the movements in these asset classes today is just the type of thing that Raymond Merriman predicted last weekend - only thing, we've seen big drops in gold, oil and euro, and now this instant turnaround. So which is the head-fake and which is real? Will be interesting to see if he addresses his thoughts on that in this weekend's update!
ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 7/31
Market Map for Jul31Posted: July 31st, 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »
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Thanks again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks - I was getting extra busy the past week or so, to a point where it was difficult for me to keep up with charting. And the last few days have really ramped up with that, so I don't have much bandwidth to do much more than continue to provide the comments for now. Will try to get a good amount of chart work done to post this weekend.
For swing trading and KI$$ purposes in equities, up is up until it isn't. Meaning of course, there is no swing trade sell signal until there's a trigger day after a completed chart pattern. We've got the markets at the testing levels I've described, including now the QQQQ's having done $39.82. It does happen often enough that a price will overshoot a Fibonacci level like that, hang for a day beyond it, and then go into a trigger. If we see the QQQQ's do something like that day, then we won't know until next week if we see a sell trigger.
Daytraders have been able to follow an interesting string of numbers from 912, 922, 932, etc., on up to 982 and 992. Punctuated recently by numbers like 967, 977, 987. And of course, there's trendline work, and I know that Andre is continually keeping up his subscribers with that information. As well as indicators, and I'm thinking that anyone daytrading is already keeping a keen eye on those!
As for UNG, DAG, gold, oil, TLT and the dollar, euro, yen - we are keeping a close eye on how these perform against recent swing levels, and I heartily recommend that my readers do the same. Especially as to the currencies, gold and TLT, because these are near the heartbeat of the current rally.
So as always - be careful out there, I'll tweet from time to time during the day - and happy market navigating!
Thursday, July 30, 2009
If you're entering a parlor with the SPY, are you the spider or the fly? - ChartsEdge map for 7/30 and some comments I'm adding
ChartsEdge Market Map for Jul30Posted: July 30th, 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks, some comments of my own ...If the S&P 500 (SPX) along with the popular exchange-traded fund SPY are entering just a bit further into a Fibonacci retracement area, at the same time that Elliott Wavers are counting hourly chart movements for when a fifth wave is complete - then will you be the spider or the fly in that ancient little poem: "Come into my parlor", said the spider to the fly ...! The point is to remember that what looks like good price movement this week can be part of a wave or cycle crest that's losing momentum, so by all means play it according to what works for your time frame and trading style ... but make sure you don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade. Yesterday my tweets included pointing out that the SPX was again testing numbers like 972, 977 and 982. Maybe we'll see it test 992 - remember, the ChartsEdge weekly forecast (use the "Chartsedge weekly" label to locate easily) indicated as much in showing movement upward into today (Thursday) this week. You can see significant Fibonacci levels which I'm referring to, in my weekly SPX chart at right.
I'd tweeted yesterday that some aggressive speculators were already trying trades to short the market, and it looked intraday as if the SPX might indeed be ready to give up 972. I also tweeted that under 962 is where the brear would be growling. Anyone trading these ideas had to TMAR during the day - which is exactly what daytraders must do anyway, of course - and sure enough, this morning it looks like the past couple of days' highs may be taken out. This fits well with the idea I've been suggesting for a number of days now, that the QQQQ's having come so far cannot really turn back without testing the $39.82 level that retraces 50% of the way back to their 2007 highs.
As I also mentioned in my post last night, it's premature to predict whether a turn down from overbought conditions after completion of a 5th wave will be only a pullback preceding another rally leg up, or become something more bearish. That's why even KI$$ swing traders may want to consider locking in some profits once there's been confirmation of a significant interim top being put in, based on Fibonacci levels, wave count (completing a 5th wave of this movement), indicators and chart pattern triggers. Don't get me wrong - Tony Caldaro for example stated in his update yesterday that he'll be marking a pullback as a "b" wave indicating that there should be another rally leg up afterward. I'm just pointing out that there isn't a guarantee.
Below are my monthly SPX chart, and the NYSE McClellan chart (courtesy of DecisionPoint.com via Stockcharts.com, both in the links at right). I've had a bit of fun again with marking lines onto the McClellan chart, especially as the Oscillator not surprisingly turned back from my newer top downtrend line, showing some negative divergence for this last bit of the move up. The StochRSI on the monthly chart does look good, so this does give some promise that after a pullback we may indeed see another rally leg up (just so my readers understand, I'm choosing my words deliberately when I say "we may see" it).
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Golden ratio proved bearish for gold, silver and oil, bullish for the dollar and bonds - does it last, or reverse?
Gold continued lower again from the "golden ratio" Fibonacci .618 retrace that I mentioned this morning - and interestingly, dropped to a .618 retrace to its most recent swing low! US bonds represented by TLT continued up out of their recent low which also represented a .618 retrace to their prior low. As for the dollar, if you've been reading here any length of time, or browse my prior posts (e.g., "US dollar" label), you know its move up is from a .618 retracement area on the monthly charts! I think we could find a few more examples, as the recent rallies in silver, oil, gasoline, and likely some other items, tested to their .618 retracements to prior swing highs ... before dropping smartly the past few days. The banking and financials have tried to break out these past two trading days, but are looking weak and making me wonder if they can drum up what's needed before the music winds down. What's next, where does all this lead?
First, recall all the analysis and table-pounding I was doing over the past 3 or 4 months, about the currencies charts, especially the dollar and euro, and gold. Also of course oil. In all these I showed the potential for the big picture to shift again to the deflationary themes suggested by the long-wave cycles. After all that, it got - er, frustrating? or at least boring - as the dollar, euro and gold meandered. But I hope my readers didn't forget. Since then, we saw oil and gasoline fall to that .382 retracement I showed, then bounce up, while we all went through the head-and-shoulders head-fake drama. Then this past weekend, I showed how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached important Fibonacci levels, with the QQQQ's nearing one also (39.82 representing 50% back to their 2007 highs). As the Shanghai and some other indices appear to be doing similar ... And the DJIA, NYSE and - perhaps - the Dow Transports testing their January highs.
From the socionomic perspective, it's also interesting to note that the SPX and Dow Industrials are testing levels from November and January - times when the U.S. was going into the presidential elections, when Barack Obama was being sworn in, and now faces increasing tests with his health care initiative and other discussions sparked by his recent press conference remarks. Again - just a socionomic note, looking at price levels and the national scene.
These factors appeared to be converging in some ways in May/June, but now have heightened with some like the SPX having matured to that .382 retrace of 962. The dollar and gold are running out of "room" in price and time to strike out in a direction. Will it be up, or down? I don't know if the charts will provide answers this week. But readers know I generally believe we shouldn't assume the big direction isn't in the deflationary direction.
It remains possible for an equities market pullback to show up and provide simply a correction working off overbought conditions. I just believe we should position in order to avoid portfolio damage in case it turns out to become something more bearish.
First, recall all the analysis and table-pounding I was doing over the past 3 or 4 months, about the currencies charts, especially the dollar and euro, and gold. Also of course oil. In all these I showed the potential for the big picture to shift again to the deflationary themes suggested by the long-wave cycles. After all that, it got - er, frustrating? or at least boring - as the dollar, euro and gold meandered. But I hope my readers didn't forget. Since then, we saw oil and gasoline fall to that .382 retracement I showed, then bounce up, while we all went through the head-and-shoulders head-fake drama. Then this past weekend, I showed how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached important Fibonacci levels, with the QQQQ's nearing one also (39.82 representing 50% back to their 2007 highs). As the Shanghai and some other indices appear to be doing similar ... And the DJIA, NYSE and - perhaps - the Dow Transports testing their January highs.
From the socionomic perspective, it's also interesting to note that the SPX and Dow Industrials are testing levels from November and January - times when the U.S. was going into the presidential elections, when Barack Obama was being sworn in, and now faces increasing tests with his health care initiative and other discussions sparked by his recent press conference remarks. Again - just a socionomic note, looking at price levels and the national scene.
These factors appeared to be converging in some ways in May/June, but now have heightened with some like the SPX having matured to that .382 retrace of 962. The dollar and gold are running out of "room" in price and time to strike out in a direction. Will it be up, or down? I don't know if the charts will provide answers this week. But readers know I generally believe we shouldn't assume the big direction isn't in the deflationary direction.
It remains possible for an equities market pullback to show up and provide simply a correction working off overbought conditions. I just believe we should position in order to avoid portfolio damage in case it turns out to become something more bearish.
ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 7/29
Market Map for Jul29
Posted: July 29th, 2009 Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks - from an Elliott Wave perspective, it's very tempting to think that we're seeing a series of small waves tracing out a 5th-wave completion to the rally from the lows earlier this month. Tony Caldaro's OEW update yesterday mentioned that a 4th wave may have finished, paving the way for a 5th wave in progress, and so if this is indeed happening then there are questions on how high it can reach. Numbers like 990 and 1000 in the SPX are being mentioned. Yesterday we saw another interesting development in our "string" of numbers, with the SPX testing 982 and 972, so why not consider 992? Edging higher is also tracing out what looks like a "megaphone" or reverse triangle, which if nothing else gives us another way to look at trendlines. For that matter, in looking for indications of when the SPX reaches a top - whether it's a near-term top for this rally leg, or something more - we'll need to see more deterioration in the indicators along with a trendline break to confirm it.
The hourly indicators have deteriorated and the daily ones are beginning to, but so far all we can diagnose from that is that momentum is flagging. It's the other surrounding factors - significant Fibonacci levels occurring on the monthly charts, the VIX and the dollar showing signs of life - that make it look potentially more significant.
Gold testing the mettle of many traders as its meandering waves are measured for bullish or bearish potential
Readers here know that I've looked at the gold "wave patterns" for many months, from long-term and shorter-term perspectives. And it's still possible to give the bullish case some credit, but the focus is narrowing for it to strike out in the bullish versus bearish direction. The last rise over the past few days took it to a .618 retrace back to the June highs, but then yesterday it dropped hard again. Notice that it conveniently dropped right back to one of my trendlines on my gold daily chart (below). The indicators dropped right off also. Funny that the Fibonacci .618 number is sometimes called the "golden ratio"! Watching that level is going to be one good way to take gold's measure, letting it either try being bullish or, as I've come to suspect, weaken off into a more bearish situations for the coming weeks (and maybe months).
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
More sector differentiation in the markets as key levels still being tested
Biotech and semiconductors showed relative strength today, along with the Nasdaq and QQQQ's - still retaining the possibility of the QQQQ's testing just a bit higher to the $39.82 level that would retrace their entire drop from the peak of 2007. Other major indices closed off their intraday lows as they found enough support to aim for slightly higher levels tomorrow and/or Thursday. It was interesting, however, to see strength in the dollar and TLT (US bond ETF), even while LQD still stayed up, with the yen (and VIX) up, and the euro and gold fell. Oil was off too. All in all, too soon to call a deflationary turn, but enough hints to keep that potential waiting in the wings.
On the hourly charts, we might think a small fifth wave is nearing completion, which supports my morning comment about the markets on "eggshells". For that matter, in some specific items:
UNG remained above its support level so it remains viable;
DAG tested lower but closed higher, so we'll see if it gathers strength for another move up;
FXY (yen) was higher and I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt so long as it remains above yesterday's (Monday's) lows;
TLT - ditto, same comment as for FXY;
VXX i'm willing to have some long exposure to volatility and looking for it to remain above Friday's low (and preferably yesterday's low as well);
GLD I'm willing to remain short - also short euro - so long as below Monday's high. Thinking the same, really, about oil (USO, or can short with a bearish oil ETF) so long as below yesterday's high.
If you think there's a theme here, you're right. Although DAG bends or breaks it as a long play, but that's okay too.
There remain some interesting differences in big-picture Elliott Wave views that the markets should start to "answer" soon ... so, never a dull moment!
On the hourly charts, we might think a small fifth wave is nearing completion, which supports my morning comment about the markets on "eggshells". For that matter, in some specific items:
UNG remained above its support level so it remains viable;
DAG tested lower but closed higher, so we'll see if it gathers strength for another move up;
FXY (yen) was higher and I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt so long as it remains above yesterday's (Monday's) lows;
TLT - ditto, same comment as for FXY;
VXX i'm willing to have some long exposure to volatility and looking for it to remain above Friday's low (and preferably yesterday's low as well);
GLD I'm willing to remain short - also short euro - so long as below Monday's high. Thinking the same, really, about oil (USO, or can short with a bearish oil ETF) so long as below yesterday's high.
If you think there's a theme here, you're right. Although DAG bends or breaks it as a long play, but that's okay too.
There remain some interesting differences in big-picture Elliott Wave views that the markets should start to "answer" soon ... so, never a dull moment!
ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 7/28; and some market comments
Market Map for Jul28Posted: July 28th, 2009Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks - this might just be my own thought, so take it for what it's worth, if anything ... I feel that the markets are on eggshells right now, as some have met key levels (SPX above 962, Nasdaq Composite above 1912, Dow Industrials above January highs), and others are edging closer (QQQQ's 50% mark at 39.82, Dow Transports edging closer to confirmation of a signal if they can better their January highs). The VIX moved up yesterday but didn't look flamingly bullish - yet. The dollar is "deciding" how low to go for a cycle trough, and gold, the euro and yen are on the other side of that trade.
I can even see a scenario in which we get another sizable pullback and then a final push up, but I am not saying I see that as the most likely scenario - I really don't see it that way, but just saying it could be one more trick for the markets to pull. There are some who are beginning to see a reverse symmetrical triangle (RST) shaping up, and I can see that potential too for some of the indices. If a pattern like that is valid, it might be one way of seeing some level of a wave crest shaping up.
There are others who are on the bullish side, and looking for more upside after the indices and other things, such as oil, break out and looking for significantly higher levels. I know that is consistent with Terry Laundry's views, and those of a few others. For myself - now that we've either gotten to, or very close to the key levels I've been discussing, I've got to be in "show me" mode.
Not really time to elaborate with more charts, but then again, I think I've been putting all this out there for some time now. Such as gold, if above 960 then it brings 990 into focus, or otherwise I'm bearish on it; and the other things I've been showing. As for natural gas - my UNG pals - at least it may be getting support at its 20 day moving average, so maybe we'll see another move up there. DAG (agricultural commodities ETF) had a slightly positive day yesterday so will be interested to see if it gets higher.
Bottom line - as always, be careful out there! and good luck, and happy market navigating!
Sunday, July 26, 2009
ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 7/27
Market map for Jul27Posted: July 26th, 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map
Comments to ChartsEdge »
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks - once again, I like to provide a reminder about once a week - if these ChartsEdge forecasts are new for you, read up on how they're generated and how to use them, at the ChartsEdge site (links above and to the right) and/or my No Bull No Bear No Bias blogspot (links at right).
I noticed that Charts and Coffee blogspot (link in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page here) makes a very interesting point about using LQD as a "canary in the coal mine" (my phrase) to give an early warning signal for equities markets weakening. I'll try to add that to my own radar screen as well.
There certainly are reasons to look for a cresting at some point soon, and if/when that shows up then the discussion will turn back to, what is the significance of that ... Remember that the ChartsEdge weekly suggests a higher level later in the week, and then Elliott Wave counters will be thinking in terms of a 5th wave completion that in turn fills out its own internal five waves (measured on short-term charts such as those with 15-minute bars). Andre Gratian has also described his projections and views in his weekend update, as well.
Meantime - as always, be careful out there, and happy market navigating!
Measuring the S&P 500 market including projections for what comes next,with Turning Points by Andre Gratian
Folks, here is Andre Gratian's weekend update of projections for the S&P 500. Since he pointed us to a rally instead of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, we might pay careful attention to his current projections and turning points analysis! Andre's website is Market Turning Points, and he normally offers a free 4-week trial period of daily comments if you contact him at ajg@cybertrails.com. Here's his update:
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July 27, 2009
Week-end Report
Turning Points
By Andre Gratian
In the last Week-end Report, I suggested that the rally might not be over and that there was some faint evidence that we were about to start another phase up. In fact, it turned out to be a very strong up-phase which has led to a new recovery high in both indices, primarily motivated by better than anticipated earnings. Positive earning reports are about to end, and so is the rally which is approaching the (slightly revised) projection that it was given: 990-1000. Since this is more visible on the hourly chart, let’s start with that one and move to the longer time frames later.
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July 27, 2009
Week-end Report
Turning Points
By Andre Gratian
In the last Week-end Report, I suggested that the rally might not be over and that there was some faint evidence that we were about to start another phase up. In fact, it turned out to be a very strong up-phase which has led to a new recovery high in both indices, primarily motivated by better than anticipated earnings. Positive earning reports are about to end, and so is the rally which is approaching the (slightly revised) projection that it was given: 990-1000. Since this is more visible on the hourly chart, let’s start with that one and move to the longer time frames later.
Here, we can see that prices have moved in an up-channel, the bottom line of which is drawn as a heavy black line. That line has already been tested twice with the last time coming on Friday. The bounce continued throughout the day bringing the index to a new recovery high close, but look at the indicators: they are telling us that we are either starting another up-move, or that we have non-confirmation and that we are making a top. Monday will tell us which it is.
If we continue to move up and manage to erase the divergence in the indicators, the uptrend is intact. But if we turn down, the trend line is only about 6 or 7 points away. Breaking it would create a top, but not necessarily the final top. There are higher counts and plenty of momentum.
Now let’s turn to the daily to see what this up-move represents in a longer perspective.
As the SPX is approaching its target area, one of the indicators is overbought and one of the other two shows negative divergence with the price still well above its moving averages and its trend line. At this time, a reversal is possible but there is no way to gauge its importance until we see the action of the market over the next week.
The 20-week cycle, which was supposed to bottom early next week, has had no effect on prices so far. It is too late for it to be much of a factor in the overall trend on the downside, although it could still bring about the short-term top and following decline that the hourly chart is suggesting.
As for the longer trend, prices have clearly broken out of the channel which has contained it since March, but it is very overbought and probably has limited upside potential in this condition.
Summary:
We are approaching the 990-1000 target that had been suggested for this phase. Since longer-term cycles are scheduled to roll over soon, we should begin to see some reluctance on the part of the indices to move much higher.
Andre
ChartsEdge weekly forecasts for equities and gold for the week of July 27; and some comments on Dow Theory
Here are the ChartsEdge weekly forecast charts for equities and gold. Again, for those not familiar with these, check out the information at the ChartsEdge site (always in other sites of interest listed at right) or their information that I've included at my No Bull No Bear No Bias blogspot (links at right also). As I understand things (based also on other cycles analysts I review), there may be a trading cycle cresting this week. Much of the art of cycles analysis involves determining how the interaction of short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term cycles interact and either reinforce or mute one another, to result in actual price levels being relatively higher and lower.
Speaking of which, there's that point about Dow Theory and I may as well mention it here! Here's the real deal: the Dow Industrials closed above their January daily closing high, and that's the one to focus on as the prior secondary high point (not the June high). That means we do have the potential for a more bullish signal coming from Dow Theory. But, there is no such signal unless and until the Dow Transports confirm by doing the same. Also, if the Dow Transports do the same, then it would not signal a bull market, but would only signal a stronger cyclical bull within the much larger, secular bear market.
Okay - just had to point that out! Also those are just my own comments above, and not those of ChartsEdge. Without further ado, here are the charts for the week ahead, from ChartsEdge:
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Speaking of which, there's that point about Dow Theory and I may as well mention it here! Here's the real deal: the Dow Industrials closed above their January daily closing high, and that's the one to focus on as the prior secondary high point (not the June high). That means we do have the potential for a more bullish signal coming from Dow Theory. But, there is no such signal unless and until the Dow Transports confirm by doing the same. Also, if the Dow Transports do the same, then it would not signal a bull market, but would only signal a stronger cyclical bull within the much larger, secular bear market.
Okay - just had to point that out! Also those are just my own comments above, and not those of ChartsEdge. Without further ado, here are the charts for the week ahead, from ChartsEdge:
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Article: Global Markets in Review: Are Markets Discounting Bernanke's Scenario? -- Seeking Alpha
If you have some time to read this, it's an interesting overview: http://seekingalpha.com/article/151370-global-markets-in-review-are-markets-discounting-bernanke-s-scenario?source=article_sb_picks
KI$$-ing corn and some other thoughts on the markets
Below are charts of DAG which is an ETF that tracks agricultural commodities. I've got more things to say about the markets than time permits - yet note, excellent analysis already being presented from Caldaro, Merriman, and yet to come, Gratian. Plus the ChartsEdge cycles forecast maps. Plus I've already posted my core thoughts. So if you're seeing all that we're presenting this weekend you'll be well prepared. Thanks for the comments! As for what else to read - not a bad idea to see what others are saying, I just strongly recommend against going down the path of believing in market manipulation. Fibonacci and other TA methods get us to the right place, and you'll go crazy and/or get bad results if you try to out-smart the markets or blame "forces" for putting price where you think it doesn't belong. Though I can agree that the market usually takes the path least predicted!
Merriman mention the grains as being due for a move up and I can see the potential as it might already have completed a wave "A" and then corrective pullback "B" and ready for a nice "C" wave upward. For those wanting a KI$$ approach, we can use DAG as an ETF that tracks those. Just gotta make sure it respects the recent low as Merriman stated. If it works out to a swing long for 2-5 weeks, that's a good KI$$ swing. (We just need to be sure, if it moves under its recent swing low, we want to stop out and set this idea aside. Just something that's always got to be stated for any pattern setup.)
Working on our boat today, so will "see you later" this afternoon or evening!
Merriman mention the grains as being due for a move up and I can see the potential as it might already have completed a wave "A" and then corrective pullback "B" and ready for a nice "C" wave upward. For those wanting a KI$$ approach, we can use DAG as an ETF that tracks those. Just gotta make sure it respects the recent low as Merriman stated. If it works out to a swing long for 2-5 weeks, that's a good KI$$ swing. (We just need to be sure, if it moves under its recent swing low, we want to stop out and set this idea aside. Just something that's always got to be stated for any pattern setup.)
Working on our boat today, so will "see you later" this afternoon or evening!
Equity market bullishness projected by T Theory analysis, from Terry Laundry; and Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook worth a look
Terry Laundry has provided a feast of charts and commentary today, with his T Theory work at his T Theory website. Definitely worth checking out. I'm very aware that his projections do not synch up with the Objective Elliott Wave work of Tony Caldaro, or many other analysts of various methods. For myself, I actually can make Elliott Wave "arguments" either way, and I respect Terry's work, so I'm just going to remain neutral for now. You'll understand what I mean when you see what Terry's projecting. (I'm tempted to display his chart but not sure that I should, so you'll just have to go there and check it out.) Here's Terry's list of topics today:
Another set of reading I always recommend is the Schaeffer's Research Monday Morning Outlook, and today's is Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Powers Through 9,000; SPX Takes Aim at 1,000. Todd Salamone's on vacation but Ryan Detrick has posted up a good set of chart analysis nonetheless; always worth considering, to see what others are saying and to ponder how the charts look. I'm not saying that the SPX will get to 1,000 - especially if Tony Caldaro's count that the SPX is completing the 5th wave in the movement up from July 8, is any indication that a corrective pullback of some level is on the way. (Tony's count if you remember is that it's still completing the last part of the small 5th wave, and it wouldn't surprise me if that coincides with the idea of a trading cycle crest this week.) More specifically, their intro says:
You know, since the Schaeffer's intro reminds me, I should used the Nasdaq Composite's 1912 level as a test to see whether the markets will go into a more bullish mode (a la Terry's T forecasts).
Update for Sunday July 26 2009 Today's [4] Topics include;
1. Comments on Cycle Theory inversion problems, Walter Bressert's cycle software, and [the email address] for info on the cycle program.
2. General theory of Advance-Decline Ts and Carl's hint on setting up www.stockcharts.com to plot $NYAD and the need to select "cumulative" from the chart's "type" menu.
3. Calculation of the Big A-D T Data (A= June 4 2007; B=Nov 20 2008;C=March 8 2009) which computes Projected next major peak near August 26 2010; and
4. Calculation of the small new Short Range T; Data (a= March 18 2009; b=Jun 23 2009 c= July 10 2009) so the next projected short term peak is near Oct 15 2009.
Another set of reading I always recommend is the Schaeffer's Research Monday Morning Outlook, and today's is Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Powers Through 9,000; SPX Takes Aim at 1,000. Todd Salamone's on vacation but Ryan Detrick has posted up a good set of chart analysis nonetheless; always worth considering, to see what others are saying and to ponder how the charts look. I'm not saying that the SPX will get to 1,000 - especially if Tony Caldaro's count that the SPX is completing the 5th wave in the movement up from July 8, is any indication that a corrective pullback of some level is on the way. (Tony's count if you remember is that it's still completing the last part of the small 5th wave, and it wouldn't surprise me if that coincides with the idea of a trading cycle crest this week.) More specifically, their intro says:
Looking ahead to next week, Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Strategist, examines support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the current levels of doubt among Wall Street investors, and the potential for the current rally to continue. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White zeroes in on the Nasdaq Composite's (COMP) 12-session winning streak, which ended on Friday, and the potential implications of such an extended uptrend. Have you missed the COMP rally, or is there more to come? We wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.
You know, since the Schaeffer's intro reminds me, I should used the Nasdaq Composite's 1912 level as a test to see whether the markets will go into a more bullish mode (a la Terry's T forecasts).
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Objective Elliott Wave analysis on the S&P 500 and other financial markets: Weekend update from Tony Caldaro
Tony Caldaro has already issued his weekend update at his Elliott Wave Lives On site for the SPX, and with comments addressing other equities markets as well as commodities, bonds, etc. (His site is always included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page. I really appreciate his thoughtful analysis of the Elliott Wave counts and alternative counts. I'm more schooled in the "classic" method and still catching up to his "Objective Elliott Wave" techniques, but I think we get to the same point of view. So, without further ado, here's his weekend update, and I've added two of the hourly charts from his public charts (using his charts link which he always provides, thanks again Tony!):
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
Market analysis using proprietary Objective Elliott Wave techniques
July 25
weekend update
REVIEW
The market rally slowed down from a week ago, but still a good week. SPX/DOW gained 4.1%, and the NDX/NAZ added 4.7%. Asian markets were +5.0%, European markets gained 4.7%, and the Commodity equity markets were +3.9%. Bonds were flat, Crude gained 5.4%, Gold added 1.5%, and the Euro rose 0.7%. Economic reports were sparse: Leading indicators headed lower +0.7% v +1.3%, and Jobless claims rose to 554K v 524K. Existing home sales rose 4.89M v 4.72M, and Consumer sentiment rose to 66.0% v 64.6%. FED chairman Bernanke was busy this week, before Congress and the Senate, defending monetary policy and FED independence.
LONG TERM: bear market
A few days after the March 6th low at SPX 667 we concluded that a 17 month Primary wave A had ended, taking the form of a detailed zigzag. We then projected that Primary wave B was underway, it should last about 5 months, and the SPX could retrace 50% of the Primary wave A decline from 1576 to 667. We later modified that target to between a 50% rally (SPX 1001) and a 50% retracement (SPX 1122). When the SPX completed a zigzag at 956 on June 11th, we urged caution but kept an alternate count on the DOW charts just in case Primary wave B extended. SPX 956 was quite a bit short of our target in both time and price. The warning proved correct as the market then sold off from 956 to 869 and confirmed a downtrend. When the SPX started to rally off that low we anticipated that it should halt at the 912 pivot. It didn't.
On July 15th the SPX gapped up and ran right through the 912 pivot. This indicated that the alternate DOW was gaining in probability. Soon after, the Tech sector confirmed an uptrend and the rest of the market followed. Clearly SPX 956 only ended Major wave A, and SPX 869 Major wave B. Major wave C of Primary wave B was now underway. This week Primary wave B made a new high at SPX 980. This is the highest the market has been since Nov 08, and the SPX has now risen 47% from the March 09 low. Since we are expecting Major wave C to unfold in a zigzag, which would make Primary wave B a double zigzag, (Major wave A was also a zigzag). Major wave C should have some Fibonacci relationship to Major wave A. At SPX 979 Major wave C = 0.382A, this was already met this week. Continuing, at SPX 1014 C = 0.50A, at SPX 1047 C = 0.618A, and finally at SPX 1158 C = A. These levels also coincide with OEW pivots: 990, 1018, 1041 and 1136. We currently favor the SPX 1047 level and the 1041 pivot, which was our original lower projection.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
When tracking Major wave A we noticed that Intermediate wave A was a sharp rally that traveled 166 points before there was any sizable pullback. After the 53 point pullback we labeled that Intermediate wave B. Intermediate wave C then unfolded in a detailed five wave pattern which nearly equalled (176 points) wave A. Also the pullbacks during wave C were similar in length to the initial 53 point pullback. Major wave A was quite uniform as it unfolded. We're expecting Major wave C to also unfold in a uniform pattern, however, possibly of a simpler formation. This first wave will probably be the most important. Thus far it looks as though it is in the fifth wave up from the SPX 869 low, and there is resistance just overhead at the 990 pivot. Should it top there, a quick pullback would be in order of about 50 points. Therefore we could envision a 990 OEW pivot top, and then a pullback to the 935 OEW pivot. Right now we continue to have negative divergences on all timeframes from one hour or less, and an overbought condition on all timeframes of daily and more.
SHORT TERM: Support for the SPX remains at 961 and then 935, with resistance at 990 and then 1018. Short term momentum pulled back on Friday but is now rising again and displaying a developing negative divergence. We labeled the SPX hourly chart as a 1-2-3-4 from the 869 low and we should now be in the 5th wave, which already looks like five waves. With the DOW just above 9,000 and the SPX approaching 1000, it would appear as a natural place to run into heavy resistance.
FOREIGN MARKETS: The Asian markets rallied 5.0% for the week, China continues to lead, and three of the five indices we follow are in confirmed uptrends.
The European markets rallied 4.7%, Germany's DAX is leading as both indices are in uptrends.
The Commodity equity markets rallied 3.9%, neither of the two indices we follow have confirmed uptrends.
COMMODITIES: Bonds were flat on the week despite the rally in stocks. We still have rates in a downtrend, but they have moved up about 40 bps off the low.
Crude rallied 5.4% on the week. It's still in a downtrend, but moving higher after being quite oversold.
Gold rallied 1.5% this week. It appears to be impulsing higher after the early July low around $905.
The currencies were relatively quiet this week. The USD (-1.0%) continues to drift lower; Euro (+0.7%), Yen (-0.7%) and CDW (+2.6%) higher.
NEXT WEEK: Monday kicks off the week with New home sales at 10:00. On Tuesday we have Case-Shiller home prices and Consumer confidence. Wednesday Durable goods orders. Thursday the usual weekly Jobless claims. Then Friday Q2 GDP, the employment Cost index, and Chicago PMI. Interesting week. As for the FED, the only thing scheduled so far is the Beige book on Wednesday. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
Market analysis using proprietary Objective Elliott Wave techniques
July 25
weekend update
REVIEW
The market rally slowed down from a week ago, but still a good week. SPX/DOW gained 4.1%, and the NDX/NAZ added 4.7%. Asian markets were +5.0%, European markets gained 4.7%, and the Commodity equity markets were +3.9%. Bonds were flat, Crude gained 5.4%, Gold added 1.5%, and the Euro rose 0.7%. Economic reports were sparse: Leading indicators headed lower +0.7% v +1.3%, and Jobless claims rose to 554K v 524K. Existing home sales rose 4.89M v 4.72M, and Consumer sentiment rose to 66.0% v 64.6%. FED chairman Bernanke was busy this week, before Congress and the Senate, defending monetary policy and FED independence.
LONG TERM: bear market
A few days after the March 6th low at SPX 667 we concluded that a 17 month Primary wave A had ended, taking the form of a detailed zigzag. We then projected that Primary wave B was underway, it should last about 5 months, and the SPX could retrace 50% of the Primary wave A decline from 1576 to 667. We later modified that target to between a 50% rally (SPX 1001) and a 50% retracement (SPX 1122). When the SPX completed a zigzag at 956 on June 11th, we urged caution but kept an alternate count on the DOW charts just in case Primary wave B extended. SPX 956 was quite a bit short of our target in both time and price. The warning proved correct as the market then sold off from 956 to 869 and confirmed a downtrend. When the SPX started to rally off that low we anticipated that it should halt at the 912 pivot. It didn't.
On July 15th the SPX gapped up and ran right through the 912 pivot. This indicated that the alternate DOW was gaining in probability. Soon after, the Tech sector confirmed an uptrend and the rest of the market followed. Clearly SPX 956 only ended Major wave A, and SPX 869 Major wave B. Major wave C of Primary wave B was now underway. This week Primary wave B made a new high at SPX 980. This is the highest the market has been since Nov 08, and the SPX has now risen 47% from the March 09 low. Since we are expecting Major wave C to unfold in a zigzag, which would make Primary wave B a double zigzag, (Major wave A was also a zigzag). Major wave C should have some Fibonacci relationship to Major wave A. At SPX 979 Major wave C = 0.382A, this was already met this week. Continuing, at SPX 1014 C = 0.50A, at SPX 1047 C = 0.618A, and finally at SPX 1158 C = A. These levels also coincide with OEW pivots: 990, 1018, 1041 and 1136. We currently favor the SPX 1047 level and the 1041 pivot, which was our original lower projection.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
When tracking Major wave A we noticed that Intermediate wave A was a sharp rally that traveled 166 points before there was any sizable pullback. After the 53 point pullback we labeled that Intermediate wave B. Intermediate wave C then unfolded in a detailed five wave pattern which nearly equalled (176 points) wave A. Also the pullbacks during wave C were similar in length to the initial 53 point pullback. Major wave A was quite uniform as it unfolded. We're expecting Major wave C to also unfold in a uniform pattern, however, possibly of a simpler formation. This first wave will probably be the most important. Thus far it looks as though it is in the fifth wave up from the SPX 869 low, and there is resistance just overhead at the 990 pivot. Should it top there, a quick pullback would be in order of about 50 points. Therefore we could envision a 990 OEW pivot top, and then a pullback to the 935 OEW pivot. Right now we continue to have negative divergences on all timeframes from one hour or less, and an overbought condition on all timeframes of daily and more.
SHORT TERM: Support for the SPX remains at 961 and then 935, with resistance at 990 and then 1018. Short term momentum pulled back on Friday but is now rising again and displaying a developing negative divergence. We labeled the SPX hourly chart as a 1-2-3-4 from the 869 low and we should now be in the 5th wave, which already looks like five waves. With the DOW just above 9,000 and the SPX approaching 1000, it would appear as a natural place to run into heavy resistance.
FOREIGN MARKETS: The Asian markets rallied 5.0% for the week, China continues to lead, and three of the five indices we follow are in confirmed uptrends.
The European markets rallied 4.7%, Germany's DAX is leading as both indices are in uptrends.
The Commodity equity markets rallied 3.9%, neither of the two indices we follow have confirmed uptrends.
COMMODITIES: Bonds were flat on the week despite the rally in stocks. We still have rates in a downtrend, but they have moved up about 40 bps off the low.
Crude rallied 5.4% on the week. It's still in a downtrend, but moving higher after being quite oversold.
Gold rallied 1.5% this week. It appears to be impulsing higher after the early July low around $905.
The currencies were relatively quiet this week. The USD (-1.0%) continues to drift lower; Euro (+0.7%), Yen (-0.7%) and CDW (+2.6%) higher.
NEXT WEEK: Monday kicks off the week with New home sales at 10:00. On Tuesday we have Case-Shiller home prices and Consumer confidence. Wednesday Durable goods orders. Thursday the usual weekly Jobless claims. Then Friday Q2 GDP, the employment Cost index, and Chicago PMI. Interesting week. As for the FED, the only thing scheduled so far is the Beige book on Wednesday. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Raymond Merriman's comments for the week of 7/27 on market cycles and financial astrology influences on the economic and political climate
Here are the public weekly comments of Raymond Merriman, at MMA Comments for the Week (always included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page here). I appreciate them, and the interest in them, as he always offers up fascinating insight not just into the markets but the surrounding economic and political climate. Last time there were a few people who asked me about his specific forecasts, and I wasn't able to do that since he only makes them available via his subscriptions. (Note - his Forecast 2010 book can be pre-ordered in a few weeks, as shown in his announcements below.) But there are others such as Andre Gratian and (independently of course) Tony Caldaro who make more specific price analyses available in their weekend comments, which we'll also be looking at later, and which clearly pointed people toward the price levels that the equities markets reached, for anyone who paid attention to what they were saying.
Now, in these comments, Raymond Merriman also makes a few comments about the cycles analyses he uses (so it isn't purely astrology but couples in with market cycles theory). He even gets a bit more specific about what he's seeing. He still doesn't give away his specific projections - but I think you'll still find his thoughts worth considering:
=============
MMA Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning July 27, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The post Jupiter-Neptune retrograde conjunction period continues to correlate with soaring equity prices. The second of three passes of this 13-year geocosmic cycle was completed on July 10. As we look back, we can see that most of the world equity indices bottomed July 8-13, coincident with this powerful geocosmic cycle. In the study of financial market timing, that low is known as a primary cycle trough, a cyclical phenomenon that tends to happen approximately every 18 weeks, depending on which index one is watching. In some cases it may happen as frequently as every 13-19 weeks, such as in Japan. In others cases it may happen at the 17-27 week interval, such as in the European indices.
But according to cycles theory, once any cycle bottoms, the first stage of the new cycle is almost always bullish. That is where we are now in terms of the primary cycles of the world stock markets. We are in the first phase, and hence it is very bullish. How long this rally will last depends on the phasing of the even longer-term cycles. If the longer-term cycles are bearish, then this primary cycle will top out in its first 6-week phase. If the longer-term cycles are bullish, then it will top out in its second or third 6-week phase. In terms of Financial Astrology, we can also anticipate that a market will reverse when there is a confluence of geocosmic signatures in a short amount of time. We are entering such a time frame right now. Thus, as bullish as things appear to be at the moment, the study of Financial Astrology suggests that caution is now warranted between now and mid-August.
In other markets, Gold and Silver continued their rallies last week as well. Gold traded as high as 957.50 on Thursday, up over 50.00 in just two weeks. Silver soared to 1389 on Friday. The prior week it had been as low as 1244. There was also a solar eclipse last week that this column indicated might be important to grain markets. Sure enough, Corn bottomed right on the eclipse day, and Soybeans tested their low of the prior week, then both rallied smartly into Thursday before pulling back into the close of the week. If they hold the lows of the past two weeks, these grains could undergo more upward movement in the next 2-5 weeks, making this a market for traders to watch closely.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Venus continues its unusual aspects this week, forming a trine to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (July 26-28), and a T-square to the Saturn-Uranus opposition (July 21-28). On Friday, July 31, the planet of love and wealth will ingress into the cardinal sign of Cancer, always an important point for interest rate-related markets, like currencies and treasury notes and bonds. On Saturday, August 1, Venus will be in opposition to Pluto, which is in the first degree of Capricorn, equally important to interest rate markets as well as the Federal Reserve Board.
Its all about Venus right now. In the study of Astrology, Venus rules assets, like equities. It also rules currencies (money) and sugar. These markets are most likely to be very active during the last two weeks of July, possibly coinciding with the completion of a primary cycle and consequent reversal of significance to traders. Psychologically, Venus pertains to the need for relationships, the urge to connect with others and attain agreement and support. Given that it makes a favorable trine to Jupiter and Neptune, and given that Neptune is associated with the healing, health, and helping professions, it is not surprising that the news of late has focused so heavily on the issue of universal health insurance. President Obama is campaigning tirelessly to make this vision a reality. The problem, of course, comes in the form of how to pay for it. Who gets taxed in order to provide this coverage to all? That’s the domain of Pluto – taxes and debt. So on the one hand, Venus shows the ambition and drive to provide a security net of health insurance to everyone (in its trine to the universal Jupiter-Neptune). On the other hand, it shows the struggle to gain support for the financial plans necessary to afford this coverage.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“ …..The opposition Saturn Uranus is leading and Jupiter amplifies its effects, and this trio is generally present in economic crisis as well as in wars, the former leading to the latter, both being equivalent to ravages. Here we have the coming up of the waning phase of the Kondratiev cycle, amplified by the presence of Jupiter and this makes us fear an economic depression, the first big one in that XXIst century. If this prognostication were not to occur, then we would dread the first big crisis of the international community: nationalist drives leading to a clash of economic interests in a metastasis of violence…..” Andre Barbault, written in 1990 in the magazine “L’Astrologue” , n°92, a special issue, a “Numero Spécial XXIe siècle,” pages 36-37 under the title “Les bouleversements de 2010.”
The problem with the 13-year conjunction cycle of Jupiter and Neptune now so evident is that it can be incredibly optimistic and altruistic without any evidence of reality to support such a faith. It can seem like the “irrational exuberance” observation of the investment community by Alan Greenspan some years back. The problem with Saturn in opposition to Uranus is that it can be incredibly harsh and cynical, with such an explosion of fear that it is difficult for people to maintain a sense of hope and optimism about the future. The “situation is bad and getting worse,” seems to be the core of this outlook. The Jupiter-Neptune crowd seems airy-fairy and willing to believe that “…if you can think it, then it will be.” The Saturn-Uranus crowd, on the other hand, may be so skeptical that they appear to be too negative thinking to anyone who disagrees with them. Where is the middle ground? Where is the bridge of connection that Venus seeks? There doesn’t appear to be any, as the two sides become increasingly more polarized.
We also see this same conflict appearing in the world of financial markets right now. The “equities” crowd sees signs of economic hope. Companies are reporting profits again, the rate of unemployment is lessening, and many economic reports show the economy is starting to turn around. But a look at the precious metals crowd shows deep concerns about the possibility of inflation returning, as well as the prospect of another economic shock to the world financial system. To them, this economic recovery has no legs. It is nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” in a longer-term economic contraction. Just because the rate of decline is not as steep as it was a few months ago, jobs are still being lost, business are still going out of business, and homes are still being foreclosed in record numbers. You drop an object from the top of a building, and when it hits the cement, the rate of decline suddenly lessens. But it doesn’t mean the object is now better off because its slope of descent has leveled off. So which is it?
As noted Mundane Astrologer Andre Barbault of Paris, France forecasted way back in 1990, the Saturn-Uranus opposition portends an economic crisis, the likes of which we have not seen in many, many years. In fact, it is the most serious aspect for an economically dangerous period that he described. And it peaks when Jupiter enters a hard aspect to that dual, which will happen in the latter half of 2010. The bottom line is that, despite the cautious optimism of Jupiter and Neptune, and the assurances of progress by such Jupiterian personages as Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke and others, this is still not a time to be overly speculative with your money. In fact, it may be time to consider ways to hedge your current investments, and protect your current assets, as equities have now recovered nearly one-third of the amount they fell between October 2007 and March 2009. It seems like more right now, doesn’t it? But maybe it’s just the mirage of Jupiter and Neptune still at work.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Cycles Reports did not come out last week as announced last week. They will be issued this week, Monday and Tuesday. The “MMA Cycles Report” is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds. For more information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-july-27,-2009/services/.
This is a good time to sign up for the ISAR 2009 conference, as a window for a wonderful discount closes July 25. For those interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, this fantastic conference in Astrology is going to take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers like Christeen Skinner, Robert Hitt, Grace Morris, Roy Gillett, and myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology, specializing in the Stock and Gold markets, on Monday, August 24. For more information, and registration, please go to http://www.isar2009.com/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-july-27,-2009/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
Stay tuned to these pages for an announcement on the annual pre-publication special offer for the Forecast 2010 book, coming in the next few weeks. Once the announcement is made, we will begin to take orders for this book that has sold out the past three years. Order early and make sure you get next year’s Forecasts!
[For additional complete information on the MMA announcements and services, including in different languages, please visit MMA Comments for the Week; Flowchart on MMA Products and Services; and http://www.mmacycles.com/, look under SERVICES.]
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
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Now, in these comments, Raymond Merriman also makes a few comments about the cycles analyses he uses (so it isn't purely astrology but couples in with market cycles theory). He even gets a bit more specific about what he's seeing. He still doesn't give away his specific projections - but I think you'll still find his thoughts worth considering:
=============
MMA Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning July 27, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The post Jupiter-Neptune retrograde conjunction period continues to correlate with soaring equity prices. The second of three passes of this 13-year geocosmic cycle was completed on July 10. As we look back, we can see that most of the world equity indices bottomed July 8-13, coincident with this powerful geocosmic cycle. In the study of financial market timing, that low is known as a primary cycle trough, a cyclical phenomenon that tends to happen approximately every 18 weeks, depending on which index one is watching. In some cases it may happen as frequently as every 13-19 weeks, such as in Japan. In others cases it may happen at the 17-27 week interval, such as in the European indices.
But according to cycles theory, once any cycle bottoms, the first stage of the new cycle is almost always bullish. That is where we are now in terms of the primary cycles of the world stock markets. We are in the first phase, and hence it is very bullish. How long this rally will last depends on the phasing of the even longer-term cycles. If the longer-term cycles are bearish, then this primary cycle will top out in its first 6-week phase. If the longer-term cycles are bullish, then it will top out in its second or third 6-week phase. In terms of Financial Astrology, we can also anticipate that a market will reverse when there is a confluence of geocosmic signatures in a short amount of time. We are entering such a time frame right now. Thus, as bullish as things appear to be at the moment, the study of Financial Astrology suggests that caution is now warranted between now and mid-August.
In other markets, Gold and Silver continued their rallies last week as well. Gold traded as high as 957.50 on Thursday, up over 50.00 in just two weeks. Silver soared to 1389 on Friday. The prior week it had been as low as 1244. There was also a solar eclipse last week that this column indicated might be important to grain markets. Sure enough, Corn bottomed right on the eclipse day, and Soybeans tested their low of the prior week, then both rallied smartly into Thursday before pulling back into the close of the week. If they hold the lows of the past two weeks, these grains could undergo more upward movement in the next 2-5 weeks, making this a market for traders to watch closely.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Venus continues its unusual aspects this week, forming a trine to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (July 26-28), and a T-square to the Saturn-Uranus opposition (July 21-28). On Friday, July 31, the planet of love and wealth will ingress into the cardinal sign of Cancer, always an important point for interest rate-related markets, like currencies and treasury notes and bonds. On Saturday, August 1, Venus will be in opposition to Pluto, which is in the first degree of Capricorn, equally important to interest rate markets as well as the Federal Reserve Board.
Its all about Venus right now. In the study of Astrology, Venus rules assets, like equities. It also rules currencies (money) and sugar. These markets are most likely to be very active during the last two weeks of July, possibly coinciding with the completion of a primary cycle and consequent reversal of significance to traders. Psychologically, Venus pertains to the need for relationships, the urge to connect with others and attain agreement and support. Given that it makes a favorable trine to Jupiter and Neptune, and given that Neptune is associated with the healing, health, and helping professions, it is not surprising that the news of late has focused so heavily on the issue of universal health insurance. President Obama is campaigning tirelessly to make this vision a reality. The problem, of course, comes in the form of how to pay for it. Who gets taxed in order to provide this coverage to all? That’s the domain of Pluto – taxes and debt. So on the one hand, Venus shows the ambition and drive to provide a security net of health insurance to everyone (in its trine to the universal Jupiter-Neptune). On the other hand, it shows the struggle to gain support for the financial plans necessary to afford this coverage.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“ …..The opposition Saturn Uranus is leading and Jupiter amplifies its effects, and this trio is generally present in economic crisis as well as in wars, the former leading to the latter, both being equivalent to ravages. Here we have the coming up of the waning phase of the Kondratiev cycle, amplified by the presence of Jupiter and this makes us fear an economic depression, the first big one in that XXIst century. If this prognostication were not to occur, then we would dread the first big crisis of the international community: nationalist drives leading to a clash of economic interests in a metastasis of violence…..” Andre Barbault, written in 1990 in the magazine “L’Astrologue” , n°92, a special issue, a “Numero Spécial XXIe siècle,” pages 36-37 under the title “Les bouleversements de 2010.”
The problem with the 13-year conjunction cycle of Jupiter and Neptune now so evident is that it can be incredibly optimistic and altruistic without any evidence of reality to support such a faith. It can seem like the “irrational exuberance” observation of the investment community by Alan Greenspan some years back. The problem with Saturn in opposition to Uranus is that it can be incredibly harsh and cynical, with such an explosion of fear that it is difficult for people to maintain a sense of hope and optimism about the future. The “situation is bad and getting worse,” seems to be the core of this outlook. The Jupiter-Neptune crowd seems airy-fairy and willing to believe that “…if you can think it, then it will be.” The Saturn-Uranus crowd, on the other hand, may be so skeptical that they appear to be too negative thinking to anyone who disagrees with them. Where is the middle ground? Where is the bridge of connection that Venus seeks? There doesn’t appear to be any, as the two sides become increasingly more polarized.
We also see this same conflict appearing in the world of financial markets right now. The “equities” crowd sees signs of economic hope. Companies are reporting profits again, the rate of unemployment is lessening, and many economic reports show the economy is starting to turn around. But a look at the precious metals crowd shows deep concerns about the possibility of inflation returning, as well as the prospect of another economic shock to the world financial system. To them, this economic recovery has no legs. It is nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” in a longer-term economic contraction. Just because the rate of decline is not as steep as it was a few months ago, jobs are still being lost, business are still going out of business, and homes are still being foreclosed in record numbers. You drop an object from the top of a building, and when it hits the cement, the rate of decline suddenly lessens. But it doesn’t mean the object is now better off because its slope of descent has leveled off. So which is it?
As noted Mundane Astrologer Andre Barbault of Paris, France forecasted way back in 1990, the Saturn-Uranus opposition portends an economic crisis, the likes of which we have not seen in many, many years. In fact, it is the most serious aspect for an economically dangerous period that he described. And it peaks when Jupiter enters a hard aspect to that dual, which will happen in the latter half of 2010. The bottom line is that, despite the cautious optimism of Jupiter and Neptune, and the assurances of progress by such Jupiterian personages as Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke and others, this is still not a time to be overly speculative with your money. In fact, it may be time to consider ways to hedge your current investments, and protect your current assets, as equities have now recovered nearly one-third of the amount they fell between October 2007 and March 2009. It seems like more right now, doesn’t it? But maybe it’s just the mirage of Jupiter and Neptune still at work.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Cycles Reports did not come out last week as announced last week. They will be issued this week, Monday and Tuesday. The “MMA Cycles Report” is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds. For more information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-july-27,-2009/services/.
This is a good time to sign up for the ISAR 2009 conference, as a window for a wonderful discount closes July 25. For those interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, this fantastic conference in Astrology is going to take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers like Christeen Skinner, Robert Hitt, Grace Morris, Roy Gillett, and myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology, specializing in the Stock and Gold markets, on Monday, August 24. For more information, and registration, please go to http://www.isar2009.com/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-july-27,-2009/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
Stay tuned to these pages for an announcement on the annual pre-publication special offer for the Forecast 2010 book, coming in the next few weeks. Once the announcement is made, we will begin to take orders for this book that has sold out the past three years. Order early and make sure you get next year’s Forecasts!
[For additional complete information on the MMA announcements and services, including in different languages, please visit MMA Comments for the Week; Flowchart on MMA Products and Services; and http://www.mmacycles.com/, look under SERVICES.]
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2009; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
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