UnBiasedTrading (TM)

VIX may be quiet for the holidays - but rise early next year

2009-12-16T22:06:00.003-05:00

The VIX has remained low after its wild ride for weeks in an expanding triangle. VIX options settled this morning, at slighy under $21, and check out this video about traders' expectations for where it's headed next. It's from the CME Group via OptionMonster, something I re-tweeted earlier today. Here's my re-tweet message, you can click the YouTube link to view the information:

UnbiasedTrading RT @mrtopstep RT @optionmonster: Dec VIX print on today's Sonar Report http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-TXT5lSp3Y _ about 7 hours ago

And here's a look at the VIX, daily and weekly charts, below. Looks like positive divergence on both - which would support the idea that the VIX will move up again, even if it doesn't happen until after this year actually closes.

Crazy markets? If you like Merriman's mix of market cycles with financial astrology, you'll love Sunday's webcast

2009-12-16T16:18:00.004-05:00

The Fed pledged to stay the course in their much-watched comments released this afternoon, and added that the economy is improving. And the Dow lost all its gains for the day, closing down 11. Huh?!? Well, maybe it's true there's more in heaven and earth than dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio! One of the analysts we appreciate reference is Raymond Merriman, who incorporates big-picture (position and swing trading) cycles with fascinating social, economic and financial insights incorporating astrology. If you've been reading the Merriman Market Analyst - Weekly Previews, you know he's providing a webcast on Sunday. You can see the information posted at http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/. Here is their banner that leads to their site for info - I don't get anything from this, other than the satisfaction of making sure my readers who may be interested, get the info:

Home

While we're at it, below is a quote from last Friday's comments by Merriman. True, these are the public ones, so don't incorporate his subscription service comments. And you also get the flavor that nothing is necessarily written in concrete for how the short-term movements play out. However, it's a good read with reminders of things to be alert for:

The heart of a powerful time band of geocosmic signatures is approaching at the end of this week. Monday begins a translation of the Sun to the Saturn-Uranus opposition. The Sun will square Uranus on Monday, December 14 and the translation ends when the Sun squares Saturn on December 25. Venus will then do the same type of translation, first with its square to Uranus on December 19 and then a square to Saturn on December 29. Trying to forecast mundane and financial market trends under such signatures is always a challenge, for Uranus rules the unexpected. In the case of the Sun and Venus in Sagittarius, one would expect optimism, and a sense that things will be OK, even favorable. In terms of holiday shopping, this would portend better sales than expected, for Sagittarius and its ruler Jupiter tends to be generous in gift-giving. But in terms of mundane and world events, these same signatures can coincide with sudden shocks. Saturn governs the principles of loss, restriction, and stress. Uranus has rulership over events like earthquakes and unexpected and disturbing events. On top of that, Mars will turn retrograde next weekend, on December 20. This highlights the aggression principle of Mars at a time when the peace-loving principles of Jupiter and Neptune are also in play.

Of course we continue to work with other technical analysis methods, including channels, support/resistance, breadth, wave counts, etc. But if you find Merriman's work as insightful as I do - or even if you're just interested in big questions like, what will gold and oil do next year? - then check out this webcast.

ChartsEdge equities intraday cycle forecast maps for 12/16

2009-12-16T08:18:00.007-05:00

Welcome to FOMC Wednesday! And we even have opex Friday in a couple of days. And we've got folks wondering when the Fed will tighten (it's supposedly already withdrawing some of the liquidity support, according to Abby Joseph Cohen). While there are reasons to see equities gravitating toward SPX 1100 and RUT 600, with a lot of options spread plays being put on. Well - let's turn to one of our favorite intraday tools (and remember, these kick in from the market open at 9:30 am ET).

Thanks to Mike Korell and his ChartsEdge - here are today's BP and Pattern Recognition maps from http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/:

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ChartsEdge Daily charts

Posted: December 16th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Ben Bernanke named "Person of the Year 2009" by TIME; it's largely about social mood

2009-12-16T07:24:00.005-05:00

It's official! See "Ben Bernanke - Person of the Year 2009" - at TIME, http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251,00.html. Here's a quote:

He just happens to be the most powerful nerd on the planet.
Bernanke is the 56-year-old chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the U.S., the most important and least understood force shaping the American — and global — economy. Those green bills featuring dead Presidents are labeled federal reserve note for a reason: the Fed controls the money supply. It is an independent government agency that conducts monetary policy, which means it sets short-term interest rates — which means it has immense influence over inflation, unemployment, the strength of the dollar and the strength of your wallet. And ever since global credit markets began imploding, its mild-mannered chairman has dramatically expanded those powers and reinvented the Fed.

So - it's quite interesting for Fed-watchers! Especially with today being FOMC Wednesday!

The point about social mood, or socionomics, is that this reflects only partly on Bernanke himself, while largely reflecting the hopes and fears of the general population. Selecting Bernanke couldn't have happened previously in his term, because he wasn't so widely perceived as being at the center of the financial recovery (or, situation if you prefer that word). President Obama reinforced this during his speech reappointing Bernanke, describing him repeatedly as having a central role.

We also tend to believe that social mood produces the waves that send the markets up and down. So that whether the rally gives out, or instead produces a kind of glorious wave V (at least wave 1 of V) up without revisiting the March lows, really depends more on collective mood and less on Bernanke himself. He can help influence mood; but if it turns even for an external reason, it may not help. Time will tell (a pun of course) whether this limelight of being named "Person of the Year" - apparently engineering a rally that's lasted from March until now - merely marks another passage of good fame for him. Or whether the history yet to occur, will be as kind.

Update - can't resist quoting also what Rick Santelli said this morning on CNBC, that this isn't so much growing the economy as it is "Keynesian-ism with a sugar buzz.". Priceless! Again - it'll be history that looks back and will know with more objectivity and the benefit of seeing results, whether all the quantitative easing, liquidity and government spending really did the job.

For today, we won't spoil the moment by reminding of the perils that can still lie ahead. For today, we'll just say congratulations. (And continue counting out bullish scenarios for gold.)

Gold may be in a bubble, but why not join for when it triples again?

2009-12-16T07:21:00.003-05:00

Tony Caldaro wrote a very interesting post about gold thus past weekend, "Been hearing this week that Gold is in a bubble (?)" - at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!63496.entry. It's an Objective Elliott Wave view that our readers should consider (thanks again, Tony!). Now I might test and question the immediate path for gold from time to time. But the basic premise that gold is in a bull market, makes sense to me. Gold would have to price itself bearish before I'd sell core holdings. So consider carefully what Tony is saying:

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December 13
Been hearing this week that Gold is in a bubble (?)
Was the Nasdaq in a bubble after it increased 15-fold during its 10-year uptrend from 1990-2000?
Was Crude in a bubble after it increased 15-fold during its 10-year bull market from 1998-2008?
Then Gold is beginning to enter an expanding bubble as it has increased 5-fold during its 8-year uptrend from 2001-2009?
Did you notice both the Nasdaq and Crude increased 15-fold over 10 years?
When Gold reaches $3750 in 2011, it too will have increased 15-fold in 10 years. That is now our target! How do we get there? The attached monthly chart displays the four Primary waves since the bull market began in 2001, and the current unfolding Primary wave five.
When we calculate some fibonacci relationships for Primary wave V, in relation to Primary waves I, III, and the total advance of I thru III we uncover two interesting relationships: At $3490 Primary wave V = 4.236 Primary III, and At $3980 Primary wave V = 4.236 Primary I thru III. This is the range for the potential 2011 top.

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority backs out of $7.5 billion commitment to Citigroup - will it matter?

2009-12-16T07:08:00.003-05:00

Interestingly, the Citigroup share price is reported to have risen in European (pre-US market open) trade as this news was coming out. We'll have to see if the banking index can do anything other than provide a sell-able rally, based on the post here last night about the banking sector going into its wave C down to retest the wave A lows of March. Anyway, here's the news -

By Dakin Campbell and Andrew MacAskill
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is trying to abort an agreement to buy $7.5 billion of Citigroup Inc. stock at eight times today's price, saying the bank misled it about the investment.
ADIA, as the sovereign fund is known, filed an arbitration claim alleging "fraudulent misrepresentations," and is seeking more than $4 billion in damages if the deal is upheld, Citigroup said in a statement yesterday, adding that the claims have no merit. ADIA invested in November 2007, getting equity units that can be swapped into common stock at $31.83 to $37.24 a share from 2010. The shares closed at $3.56 in New York yesterday.

Here's the link to the full story at Bloomberg: http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aZeBnLn1f4Ic.

This could turn out to be a "buy the news" bounce, but I don't see it lasting. The C wave down idea seems more likely, meaning a downtrend for the banking index in which rallies should be sold. That doesn't mean all banks will wither. Some banks may buck the trend and do well. But the outlook for the sector isn't good, as the technicals show. The March lows are in the sights for where the index will make its next major test.

Equities rally continues to chop, with slight advantage to bulls heading into FOMC

2009-12-15T21:46:00.001-05:00

Equities continue to chop in a slightly upward overall direction. The up-down-up chop remains great for daytraders. For swing traders, it's a matter of continuing to (try to) buy dips and keep a positive outlook, looking to be sure key support isn't violated. Keeping a positive outlook isn't so easy with sectors like banking, financials, and energy companies marked as having topped their bear-market rallies! But the transports, Nasdaq, and some others are clearly helping the broad indices to remain up, with the SPX still in position to tap 1122.

I tweeted today about the 612 level in RUT. I should add that 620 can be considered as a C=A level, but 612 (which I'd measured as a triangle target) did get a reaction today. So I'm okay with using 612 as an important level in RUT now.

Equities may get help tomorrow if the euro, yen, and gold can shake off the dollar's strength, even if only for a few days (into opex perhaps?). But there's a valid idea of the opex positioning for Friday funneling the SPX toward 1100, and the Russell 2000 ($RUT) toward 600. Well, that's enough to keep things interesting, now, isn't it ...?!

XLE unlike crude oil, gasoline and natural gas, is downtrending

2009-12-15T18:44:00.003-05:00

There's been discussion of the energy sector since Monday when Exxon announced buying XTO and XOM fell. So when I was reviewing some of Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) public charts tonight (links at right - thanks again, Tony!), I took a look at XLE, the energy sector ETF. Tony's daily and weekly charts are below. The OEW markings imply that this sector, too, has the status of having topped a bear-market rally and now rolling over. So although broad indices like the Dow and Nasdaq are still relatively high and haven't confirmed a similar top yet. So if you're wondering which way to go with this - consider that in a downtrend, the idea is to sell rallies, not buy dips. True, XOM already made a handsome drop to its 200-day moving average, and might bounce temporarily (or not). Bit that drop was on real volume. Given the markings on the XLE chart, this sector still has a way to go before finishing its low.

The expectation is to re-test the previous low marked as "A" on Tony's weekly chart. That could mean landing about at that level; or could possibly mean carving a substantially lower low over the coming months. So dear readers, please be careful not to catch a falling knife. I did tweet recently about buying some DIG, my effort to go long on oil since I want to give crude oil - the commodity - the benefit of the doubt as having made its low and ready to move up to higher highs. But that's different from the company stocks (and maybe DIG wasn't the right choice, probably USO and maybe UGA (gasoline) would be right). Company stocks that travel with XLE should be treated as downtrending unless they prove otherwise.

Housing index in bearish mode fits the idea of a low in 2012

2009-12-15T18:40:00.003-05:00

A post I made earlier this evening mentioned real estate and showed the IYR, a real estate ETF that's still doing okay so far. But my overall view of housing and real estate is bearish, candidly. I've got to agree with the views of Martin Armstrong in his late November newsletter. Namely, it's got a long way down still to go. Armstrong actually forecasts an interim low in the year 2012, then up into 2016, then down again until something like 2030 or 2033 (I don't recall the year). What about Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave? I've borrowed from his public charts (thanks again Tony!), for the housing index. Tony's marking on those charts, below, shows that the housing index took about 3 years to drop in wave ABC (normally completing a "W" in regular Elliott Wave). Tony marked an X on its recent high. That implies the housing index is downtrending in its next big wave down.

Obviously it can have subwaves up and down meantime. Also, it's one thing to say that teal estate and home values ate dropping, and another to chart an index of homebuilder company stock values, which may travel differently. But my basic point is this: The real estate industry and land/home values should act as a drag on the economy for a long time still. The recent nice bounce helped, no doubt. But having this sector roll over again should be considered for trading this sector defensively, as well as kept in mind for the undertow it can create for banking in particular and equities in general.

My bad - retracting my tweet about XLF: it IS bearish

2009-12-15T16:59:00.003-05:00

In a tweet today I remarked the financials aren't as bearish as the banks. My bad - that's wrong! As you can see from the XLF charts in Tony Caldaro's public charts at his OEW site (see list at right - thanks again, Tony!), the XLF is marked in a bearish C wave down. Sure, maybe GS is only doing a 4th wave correction - just consider it in a league of its own. The financials overall are bearish. So an inverse ETF such as SKF should do fine for this sector, even as a KI$$ swing trade for quite a while.

If you can like the banking index, your stomach is stronger than mine!

2009-12-15T16:23:00.006-05:00

The banking index ($BKX, also the ETFs KBE & KRE) sagged down some more today. Not unexpected at all, given the bearish harami about a week and a half ago. Looking at the selling volumes on the KBE chart below, it's evident others are seeing it bearishly too. I haven't found an ETF that goes inverse to the $BKX so it seems a matter of shorting the KBE and/or KBW, or using options plays with them.

By contrast, look at the IYR (real estate ETF, chart below). It's managed higher despite some real selling volumes about a month ago. But is it going higher, or topping out? The answer could affect banks. Well I'm inclined to look for real estate to complete its rally crest - so I'm watching for trend reversal signs. The indicators are still in decent shape so I'm thinking it's a matter of time and we'll have to keep watching for that.

ChartsEdge equities intraday cycle forecast maps for 12/15

2009-12-15T08:56:00.005-05:00

Thanks to Mike and ChartsEdge - here are today's maps from http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/

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ChartsEdge Daily Charts

Posted: December 15th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

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Thanks Mike, once again! Folks - sorry for the late start this morning. (Yes, it was worth it to me - some pre-holiday merriment last night!!). A quick look this morning shows few if any surprises - dollar up against yen and euro, oil up, equities indices down. I'll be just as happy if we can get a trend day today in all of these. Kinda thought gold would also be up, with oil, but I remember Tony Caldaro talking about expecting gold to make a low mid-week so maybe that's the swing trade plan for gold.

I posted briefly on natural gas at my UBTNB3 blog last night - those updates also feed in at right. The underlying $NatGas may encounter MA or BB midline resistance, or just have the Fibonacci level about 7.2 if my memory is right (though I really need to reset those Fibs so won't go on that really, for now). If it gets going to the upside as I and many are hoping, it might still be "just a C wave" which we'll enjoy but be aware the pattern later on may get tricky.

For now, it's one day at a time into opex, remembering we may indeed be "pinned" at SPX 1100 and RUT 600 for the Friday opex, meaning treat it as a mean to which price is likely to revert by then. And this is day one of the 2-day FOMC! So be careful out there as always - and happy market navigating!

Russell 2000 "catches up" with flair as Dow marks time closer to cycle

2009-12-14T16:21:00.004-05:00

Today the equities indices just didn't want to conform to the ChartsEdge cycle forecast expectations, and that was that! It seemed "broken" by mid-day though I started thinking maybe they'd do catch-up in the afternoon but no dice. Only the Dow chopped around, looking closer to the ChartsEdge pattern recognition map (which was at their subscriber site). I'll just say, the general drift was clearly up, especially the Russell 2000. You can see below, in the 10-minute charts of it (top) and the Dow (bottom), that the RUT had some "catch-up" work of its own to do from its relative underperformance the prior few days.

Does this make an interim top? Maybe, if the TCI graph holds and points to a relative top today or tomorrow. As noted this weekend, the equity markets aren't likely to crash anytime soon, so a trading top here or soon should mostly likely produce another swing buying opportunity.

ChartsEdge Trader Confidence Index (TCI); and some comments I'm adding

2009-12-13T19:52:00.011-05:00

UPDATE, 12/14 at 6:31 a.m.: The ChartsEdge TCI chart has updated as you can see below. It now shows a yellow low bar 12/13, suggesting that a HIGH will be put in with a couple of trading days after 12/13. Maybe that means a relative high this morning? If so - Convenient, since the ChartsEdge weekly showed a low on Tuesday for SPX and Wednesday for NDX. Note also, Mike added some additional comment wording onto the graph (about 12/9).

You can also look specifically at the Monday portion of their weekly chart, to see the forecast for a rise for a short while after the open, then a reversal to move down and likely under the level of the open which lasts most of the day. So the intraday movement daytraders should look for is an initial move up, then an intraday reversal that leads down most of the day. Daytraders won't hold positions overnight; but swing traders will want to hold off until at least Tuesday (or Wednesday) before looking for a buy/swing long.

ChartsEdge has been showing their TCI graph from time to time recently at their http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ site (thanks Mike and ChartsEdge!). The point seems to be to look for when it puts in a daily low (which he marks in yellow), and then look for the resulting swing high or low (as the case may be) to occur in a couple of days. It sure looks like the move up there, implies we probably haven't put in a relative low for this time period yet. So it seems we're still looking for a swing low, according to how the graph looks now. If you also look at the ChartsEdge weekly, we might look for such a low to occur Tuesday or Wednesday. Considering our levels, maybe the SPX needs more consolidation before it resumes an effort to and over 1107. Or maybe it's actually trying to trace a diagonal as part of combining its overall deceleration with the effort to/above 1122. Of course, it will make some difference how the futures run into the open on Monday. Meantime, while it's unlikely we'll see a break under 1182, we might still keep in mind that it's a very important level (just in case).

So - here's that TCI graph from ChartsEdge:

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ChartsEdge TCI Chart

Posted: December 13th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Deceleration in equities markets delaying the S&P 500 in its effort to make new rally high: Turning Points update by Andre Gratian

2009-12-13T17:51:00.008-05:00

Andre Gratian shares his weekly technical analysis update of the S&P 500 (thanks again Andre!), and makes available intraday updates every trading day to his subscribers. His website is at Market Turning Points (always included in the sites list at right side of the page here), and he also posts regularly at SafeHaven.com (also a great source, in the list at right), and shares his updates every weekend here for our readers. Andre incorporates technical analysis with indicators, trendlines, review of sentiment, and some consideration of wave patterns, as well as cycles.

Andre uses a number of technical methods to interpret the internal strength and likely support, resistance, projections and turning points for the SPX. Let's see what Andre makes of the market movements in this weekend's update:
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December 13, 2009

Turning Points
by Andre Gratian

A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis

Cycles - Breadth - Price projections

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current Position of the Market

Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. As illustrated by the current market performance, this will not be a straight-down decline, but will consist of a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.

SPX: Intermediate trend. The 6+ weeks period of consolidation looks as if it may have ended at 1084. The index made a new high at 1119, but it is encountering stiff resistance which is making further progress difficult.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Several weeks ago, I had loosely predicted that the SPX would reverse at about 1135 around the middle of December. That target price is still in the cards, but end of year or early next is a better time target.

The SPX remains in an uptrend, even though it has made little progress in the past few weeks. On 11/02, it touched the bottom of its 2nd up-channel from March and started another up-move which barely made a new high before turning into an extended sideways consolidation in which it is still trapped several weeks later.

Last week it made a new high by 5 points and retraced once again to the bottom of the channel where it found support and started another uptrend. Next week should tell us if it plans to continue to a new high or gives up trying.

The position of the indicators suggests that we are going to do the former. I have had a long-standing projection to about 1135, but other potential targets up to 1161 have developed. Consequently, we’ll put more emphasis on technical readiness than an actual price target to determine the top.

As you can see, the second indicator from the top appears to have given a buy signal, but its comparable indicator on the hourly chart -- as we will see next -- is suggesting a minor retracement first.

The 20-wk cycle is ideally due on 12/18, but may already have bottomed. A minor cycle low is due early Monday.

If the SPX should choose to reverse its trend instead of continuing up, this will be confirmed by a decisive daily close below the black uptrend line from July 6 and below the 1084 level. Until we do this, we are still in an uptrend.

The vertical red lines at the top of the channel on the Hourly chart show the deceleration which is taking place in the trend from July, where this channel begins. It is the second channel within a larger channel from March, and it looks as if it is about to come to an end. The index has started to trade in the lower portion of the channel, and if it cannot get back above the middle black line, it won’t be long before it challenges the lower one.

There is another channel marked in dashes which could have some relevance as support/resistance when prices touch those lines.

Note that the indicators are losing momentum and, with the second one overbought, we may have a correction which extends beyond the minor cycle low due Monday. If the correction goes on beyond December 18th and prices fall below the black and red lines, it will mean that the rally came to an end at 1119 and that we have started our intermediate correction.

The dollar index (below) appears to be in the process of reversing, but this will not be confirmed until it gets out of its down-channel completely and begins an uptrend. At best, it is still in a basing pattern and its indicator is close to being overbought. Moving a little higher, it will find resistance at the channel line, and it could reverse and do some base building for a week or two before attempting to break out of the channel. This would give the SPX the time that it needs to put the necessary finishing touches on its terminal move.

In any case, at some point the dollar index and the SPX will stop moving in an exact inverse relationship and it would be best to analyze both indices according to their own technical merits.

The total picture suggests to me that there will be a final rally to a new high before we make an important top. We are getting very close, but not quite there yet!

Andre

ChartsEdge week-ahead cycle forecasts for equities and gold

2009-12-13T12:38:00.004-05:00

Here are the week-ahead cycle-based forecasts from ChartsEdge for the upcoming week of December 14. As they remind us from time to time, these primarily depict timing and not necessarily relative price highs and lows. These forecast charts also gain more predictive strength when similar moves are indicated by ChartsEdge's daily BP maps and Pattern Recognition charts (both of which are available daily before the open at ChartsEdge's subscriber site). More information on how they generate these cycle-based forecasts is available from the ChartsEdge site (link above and in list at right), much of which I've also placed at my NB3 education site (link at right).

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Roundup of some good markets analysis by talented technicians this weekend within Chanukah

2009-12-13T11:04:00.012-05:00

The weekend is always a great time to review what's happening with the markets, affording more time to share and learn what other talented technicians are showing. And this weekend is also within the Chanukah holidays observed by many, from sunset December 11 to sunset December 18 this year. (For more information on Chanukah, one source is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanukkah). So here's a list of many of our standard favorites, perhaps with a few additional, and which I'll try to update as the day goes on:

Mike Burk's great technical charts review, at Safe Haven | Technical Market Report, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15252.htm

Here's one quote, but do read the whole thing:

The Santa Clause rally is not scheduled to begin for another week and a half, in the mean time there is not much pushing the market either way.

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations at http://www.ttheory.com/. He's been watching the A/D line and should have something to say about it sometime today when he posts his weekend update.

The technical and sentiment analysis by Todd Salamone and Rocky White, at Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Jones Industrial Average Still Staring Up at 10,500

When is a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report a negative for Wall Street? When it brings with it the threat of an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike. Such was the dilemma that plagued traders last week, even as a cadre of officials ranging from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attempted to assure them that the U.S. economy is in no shape to support a hike for the time being. Oddly enough, downplaying the economic recovery bolstered traders, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbing 0.8% by Friday. Still, the Dow has been stuck under the 10,500 level for a month. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, takes a look at the recent trading ranges on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). He thinks both indexes might be pinned to current levels in the upcoming expiration week. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the current Investors Intelligence survey readings and what they tell us about the market's trajectory. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

This one is co-authored by a fellow called New (yes!), and has an interesting perspective: Safe Haven | Bases Setting Up Below Key 1121 Sp 500 Pivot...., at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15250.htm

The more I watch this market through its every day whipsaw, the more I am convinced that the next decent move is going to be a higher one. Please study the charts tonight that are being provided for you and notice how so many of the index charts are forming bases, longer term ones as well, right beneath major breakout levels.

Respect the equities uptrend, but here are the parameters to measure what's ahead: Objective Elliott Wave update by Tony Caldaro

2009-12-12T17:05:00.006-05:00

Elliott Wave is a useful technique for teasing out market price probabilities. If course it helps to use it with indicators too, which Tony Caldaro does with his "the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on" analysis. We apreciate referring to his updates from his http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ site to get his objective insight into the markets' path. So let's see what he's seeing this weekend:

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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

Market analysis using proprietary Objective Elliott Wave techniques
by Tony Caldaro

Blog

December 12

weekend update

REVIEW

Most markets, worldwide, remained in their multi-week consolidation pattern this past week. US economic reports were mixed. There were reported improvements in wholesale/business inventories, the trade/budget deficits, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly jobless claims rose, however, along with import prices. Plus consumer credit continues to contract, as did the NFIB small business index. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.4% and the NDX/NAZ were -0.1%. The Asian markets were mixed -1.1%, European markets were all lower -1.8%, and the Commodity equity markets were mostly lower -1.1%. Bonds were -0.2%, Crude was -4.7%, Gold was -4.1% and the USD rose 1.0%. The FOMC meeting highlights the upcoming week, along with the PPI, CPI and leading indicators.

LONG TERM: bear market rally
During the 2002-2007 bull market we observed patiently as the OEW waves unfolded. Entering 2004, and later, some expected the stock market to head back to the 2002 lows. We did not, because the advance from 2002-2004 was clearly an impulsively rising pattern. We counted Major waves 1, 2 and 3 into early 2004. Then after Major wave 4 concluded we expected an extended, subdividing, Major wave 5. In 2007 the SPX and the DOW made all time new highs. In October 2007 the bull market ended at SPX 1576 and the bear market began.

As the decline unfolded OEW continued to quantify the waves, while we locked into the wave count. After the market lost 50% of its value it confirmed that this was a bear market of cycle/supercycle degree. This type of bear market has only occurred three times in the past 80 years: 1929-1932, 1937-1942 and 1973-1974. The typical supercycle/cycle bear market lasts about three years, losses 50% or more of its value, and unfolds in three Primary waves: ABC. When the bear market hit SPX 667 in Mar 09 we counted a completed detailed zigzag and labeled it Primary wave A. Since Primary B waves typically retrace 50% of Primary wave A. We projected a multi-month rally which would near SPX 1122 in the coming months. The high, thus far, for Primary wave B is SPX 1119 on Dec 4th. Primary wave B has met expectations. The next objective is to best determine the end of Primary wave B, and to prepare for the likely retest of the Primary wave A lows during the upcoming Primary wave C.

This week, in our review of the SPX weekly chart, we observed some additional wave information. We posted the chart below with the observed notations. During the 2002-2007 bull market, Major wave 1 ended at SPX 954, Major wave 2's first low was at SPX 869, and Major wave 3 ended at SPX 1163. During this Primary wave B advance, Major wave A ended at SPX 956, Major wave B ended at 869, and Major wave C has thus far reached SPX 1119. Observe the wave relationships. Primary wave B of this bear market is broadly tracking, in price, the early stages of the last bull market. This suggests that Primary wave B could rally into the SPX 1160's area before completing.

Next observe the Primary wave A decline from Oct 07 to Mar 09. Major wave A was approximately 300 points, (1576-1257), and Major wave C was approximately 800 points, (SPX 1440-667). As you are aware the numbers 3 and 8 are basic fibonacci numbers, with only the number 5 in between them in the fibonacci sequence: 1-2-3-5-8, etc. Should the market continue this uptrend into the SPX 1160's area, as noted above, this would represent an approximate 500 point advance from the Mar 09 SPX 667 low. Taking this one step further. Should Primary wave B end in the SPX 1160's area and then decline to SPX 667 to retest the Primary wave A low. This decline would naturally represent approximately 500 points as well.
In summary, we observe Primary wave B broadly tracking the early stages of the last bull market: SPX 956, SPX 869 and SPX 1163. Plus we observe the current bear market broadly unfolding in a series of fibonacci price related waves: Primary A/Major A 300 points, Primary A/Major C 800 points, Primary B 500 points and then Primary C 500 points. This represents the market roadmap for now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
The current uptrend, Major wave C of Primary wave B, has been rising since the Major wave B low at SPX 869 in July. Typically trends last about 2 to 3 months. This one is already five months long with the potential to enter a six month. When reviewing Primary wave A we observe that the detailed Major wave A was five months in duration, (Oct 07-Mar 08), and the detailed Major wave C was 10 months, (May 08-Mar 09). A two to one time relationship. Now observe during this Primary wave B the simple Major wave A was 3 months in duration, (Mar 09-Jun 09), and the simple Major wave C will be 6 months long in January, (Jly 09-Jan 10). This would represent another two to one time relationship.

Last week we reviewed the internals of Primary wave B in detail. This week we'll only cover the broader wave relationships. We discussed that Major wave A, SPX 667-956, was a corrective, not impulsive, uptrend. Major wave B was a simple abc downtrend, SPX 956-869. The current Major wave C, SPX 869-1119 thus far, has been corrective as well but quite complex. We offered two short term counts: one on the SPX hourly/daily charts and the other on the DOW hourly/daily charts. Both of these counts suggest the potential for one more rally from the recent SPX 1084/DOW 10,232 low. We also observed that the last three SPX rallies have been about 80 points. This would suggest a potential rally to SPX 1164. We also noted that fibonacci relationships suggest the following: for Primary wave B, Major C = Major A at SPX 1158; for Major wave C, Intermediate C = Intermediate A at SPX 1162. These three wave relationships suggest Primary B should conclude between SPX 1158 and 1164. We also noted there is an OEW pivot at SPX 1168, and these upper numbers would be within its natural +/- 7 point range.

In summary of all the information offered we present the following. All the wave structures observed, from 2002-2009, suggest that Primary wave B should conclude around the SPX 1160's between now and January 2010.

SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1090 and then 1061, with resistance at 1107 and then 1133. Short term momentum was overbought on friday but eased back to neutral during the day. This market has remained in a trading range since the last FOMC meeting: generally between the OEW 1090 and 1107 pivots. Since 1107 is a long term pivot this is not that surprising. We expected it to offer significant resistance, and it has. The next series of upside pivots are at 1133, 1168 and 1179. The market should again run into significant resistance starting at the 1168 pivot and into the 1179 pivot. Both can be considered long term pivots. The downside pivots are noted on the charts: 1090, 1061, 1041 and 1018. A break below the OEW 1041 would likely confirm a downtrend, and the end of Primary wave B. Expecting the market to be quite volatile this week with the FOMC meeting. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mixed with an average loss of 1.1%. The NIK had the biggest gain for the week +0.9%, and all fives indices are in confirmed uptrends.
European markets were all lower with an average loss of 1.8%. The IBEX was the worse performer -3.5%, and all but the STOX50 are in confirmed uptrends.
Commodity equity markets were mostly lower with an average loss of 1.1%. The RTSI was the worse performer -5.0%, but all remain in uptrends.

COMMODITIES
Bonds shed 0.2% on the week and their price uptrend is weakening. 10YR rates have been rising and are close to a confirmed uptrend.
Crude was -4.7% on the week as the downtrend continues. Yet it's quite oversold on the daily chart and nearly so on the weekly chart.
Gold was -4.1% on the week, and has lost about $115 in just seven trading days. Expecting a tradeable low by midweek.
The uptrending USD was +1.0% on the week which nearly equals last week's gain. The EURUSD (-1.6%) is downtrending, along with the CAD, CHF, GBP and ZAR, all versus the USD. The JPYUSD gained 1.6% this week.

NEXT WEEK
Economic reports for the week begin on tuesday with the PPI, the Empire index, Industrial production and the Home builders index. Wednesday we have the CPI, Housing starts and the Current accounts deficit. Then thursday the weekly Jobless claims, Leading indicators and the Philly FED. Friday, btw, is December options/futures expiration. The FED starts its FOMC meeting on tuesday and concludes with their statement wednesday afternoon. This week appears to be the last important trading week of the year. Year end holidays have already started. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

Equities markets feel boring but breadth is still - yawn! - okay

2009-12-12T15:52:00.004-05:00

Folks, I've got a confession to make, about something that contributed to my posting and tweeting little this past week. The markets started to feel a little boring! Like there was less and less to add each day! Not 100% true but the markets didn't want to make big breakdowns or breakouts, just meander off the moves of the prior week. There's an old adage, "Never short a dull market.". That alone can be reason not to hang massively short right now. The technical breadth charts below - NYAD, NYMO/NYSI and TRIN - confirm that the breadth internals are not dragging down, even while they're not sending the market shooting up either. Sentiment may be consistent right now - I think Bill Luby is expressing something similar in his post, "Predicting a Downturn Based on the Put to Call Ratio" -- at Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/article/177784-predicting-a-downturn-based-on-the-put-to-call-ratio.

It doesn't mean that the market isn't in a topping or cresting process. It's just that - yawn - they don't seem ready to break down either. Unless there's some event that takes over, I'm thinking we'll see steady or maybe even somewhat positive movement in the equity indices over the immediate near-term, this upcoming week (and perhaps into the end of the year). Basically, unless SPX 1084 is taken out, we aren't likely to see any significant downside; and these technicals don't say that such a significant downward move is likely.

Financial market effects to expect due to debt, fear, and hope: Weekly preview comments of Raymond Merriman

2009-12-11T20:26:00.004-05:00

Understanding the why's and how's of the financial markets becomes an even more fascinating undertaking when getting the perspectives of financial astrology. That's what Raymond Merriman does at his http://www.mmacycles.com site, along with his use of cycles constructs to frame his thoughts on how the markets ate unfolding. So let's take a look at his weekly preview comments for the upcoming week (always available at his site, along with his other services and articles):
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Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning December 14, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

Debt, fear, and hope. These are the three dynamics shown clearly in the heavens as we approach the end of 2009. Equity markets are in conflict over these three factors. The waning square of Saturn and Pluto coincides with the reality of excessive debt that still threatens to unravel the economies of both nations and individuals. Home foreclosures continue to mount in record numbers, as do small businesses going bankrupt. Countries like Iceland and then Dubai find it difficult to meet their financial obligation to bondholders. Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland may be close behind, which could threaten the very survival of the European Union.

But there is hope too, as exemplified by the conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune approaching on December 21, and the presence of the Sun and Venus in the sign of Sagittarius, Jupiter’s home, through December 21. As we end the year, we see employment numbers starting to increase, and retail sales better than expected, at least in the United States.

The stock markets of the world behaved in accordance with these conflicting dynamics last week. Some markets were up from the previous weeks, some were down, but almost all were between the lows of November 27 and the highs of December 2. One exception was Japan, which soared to its highest level in six weeks last week. Another was India’s Nifty Index, which made a double top to its yearly high on Friday. Most markets seem to be gently lifting higher into next week’s new moon and Jupiter-Neptune conjunction.

Many other financial markets did not fare very well last week. Gold, for instance, fell from a high of 1227.50 on December 3, to a low of 1110 on Friday, December 11. Silver collapsed too, from a high of 1950 to a low of 1690 during the same time frame. Part of the reason for this was the rise in the U.S. Dollar against many currencies, including the Euro. As the Dollar gets stronger, the price of Gold and commodities go down. Crude Oil, for instance, broke below 70.00/barrel during the week, Crude has now declined several weeks after realizing its high of the year at 82.00 on October 21. As stated in last year’s Forecast Book, Crude Oil would complete a 24-month cycle trough in very late 2008 or early 2009, followed by a 30.00-60.00 rally to a crest in May-December 2009. Crude Oil made a triple bottom between 32.40 on December 19, 2008 and 33.55 on February 12, 2009.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The heart of a powerful time band of geocosmic signatures is approaching at the end of this week. Monday begins a translation of the Sun to the Saturn-Uranus opposition. The Sun will square Uranus on Monday, December 14 and the translation ends when the Sun squares Saturn on December 25. Venus will then do the same type of translation, first with its square to Uranus on December 19 and then a square to Saturn on December 29. Trying to forecast mundane and financial market trends under such signatures is always a challenge, for Uranus rules the unexpected. In the case of the Sun and Venus in Sagittarius, one would expect optimism, and a sense that things will be OK, even favorable. In terms of holiday shopping, this would portend better sales than expected, for Sagittarius and its ruler Jupiter tends to be generous in gift-giving. But in terms of mundane and world events, these same signatures can coincide with sudden shocks. Saturn governs the principles of loss, restriction, and stress. Uranus has rulership over events like earthquakes and unexpected and disturbing events. On top of that, Mars will turn retrograde next weekend, on December 20. This highlights the aggression principle of Mars at a time when the peace-loving principles of Jupiter and Neptune are also in play. An ironic symbolism of these conflicting principles was President Barack Obama receiving the Nobel Peace prize on Thursday, within days of committing 30,000 new troops to fight in the Afghan war. These two signatures symbolize War and Peace. In essence, Obama committed the United States to fighting for peace.

Longer-Term Thoughts

It’s Pluto. It’s like an addiction. They just can’t stop spending. They can’t and won’t pay down their debt, despite the promise that they would when they took the money.

It’s Uranus. It’s crazy and irrational. They rationalize that the only way to come out of this difficult economic climate of high unemployment is to spend more money to create new federal programs that will hopefully result in new jobs. But it is not in the government sector that you want to see new jobs created. A larger government work force is not going to lead to a sustainable economic recovery, while the private work force continues to shrink and go out of business.

It’s Saturn. It’s the government, making decisions on behalf of the people, for the benefit of the people, without the full support of the people. The majority of people want the government to reduce the national deficit, and not increase it with new government-run and financed programs. But they don’t listen. Perhaps they need to create a national hearing aid program.

During the banking crisis of late 2008, as Saturn was approaching its first of five oppositions to Uranus, the White House and Treasury frightened the public with admonitions that $700 billion was immediately needed in order to prevent a second Great Depression. The idea was that taxpayers’ money would be used to bail out troubled financial institutions, and once the crisis was over, those banks would pay back these emergency “bail out” loans.

Fast forward to early November 2009. It turns out that the full $700 billion was not needed after all. The alarm was over-estimated by about 100%. $341 billion had not been spent. The White House announced on November 11 they will use these remaining funds to cut the deficit. Then days later, the banks started announcing they too would pay back those loans they received. Oh happy day! The TARP (Toxic Asset Relief Program) did its job and the bailout money will be repaid! The U,S. deficit will be reduced greatly and the government can get close to a balanced budget with all this repayment and unused money.

But now, one month later, Congress is changing its mind. Instead of giving the excess TARP funds back to reduce the nation’s deficit, and instead of taking the payments received from the loans and paying down the deficit as agreed at the time it was taken from taxpayers, Congress is instead proposing a huge new spending bill with this money - and more – “… that will increase the deficit while giving domestic programs their third major boost this year – and awarding lawmakers with more than 5,000 back home projects,” according to the Associate Press on December 11. Is it no wonder that a recent Rasmussen Poll showed that more Americans consider used car salesmen more ethical than members of Congress?

The answer to reducing the huge debt that threatens to inhibit job growth and a sustainable economic recovery, is not to increase debt. That’s irrational “Uranus thinking” at its worst. It is to reduce spending and using excess monies to actually pay down that debt, which is the constructive message of Saturn square Pluto. Saturn is the sense of “not enough,” the sense of “lack of” and the acceptance of the sacrifices necessary to bring matters back under control. Failure to adhere to this lesson of Saturn and Pluto is simply going to make the pain worse, not better. Yes, there is a need to create new jobs and get people back to work and paying their share of taxes to increase the nation’s revenues (assuming you accept that income taxes are a morally correct way to go about this, which of course, proponents of the constitution might argue otherwise). And the way to do that is to pay down the debt so the government isn’t forced to borrow even more monies in the future and/or compelled to raise taxes on the engine that creates the most sustainable jobs - small businesses.

It’s not too late to get it right. It’s not too late to make an honorable (Saturn) decision to pay the money back as promised. Otherwise, who is ever going to trust your word again? And what is a government without the trust of its own people?

Announcements

The Forecast 2010 book will be received from the printer and sent out this Tuesday, December 15. All of those who have pre-ordered should receive their copies within 5 business days. We have printed an additional 20% beyond the pre-orders, and they will likely sell out within the following 8 weeks, as has been the case three of the prior 4 years. Now that 2009 is nearly over, we can look back and see that the 2009 book has been one of the most accurate of all that have been written in the past 33 years. A list of many of those forecasts outlined in the 2009 book that have already come to pass is listed on our web site at href="http://www.mmacycles.com" target="new">http://www.mmacycles.com. And the critical reversal dates given for markets have been extremely accurate, including the high and low of the year in many.

The first “Forecasts for 2010” presentation will take place on Sunday, December 20, 2009, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). It will be a world-wide webcast, much like last year’s, only this time you will be able to see the speaker, the slides, and hear the questions asked of other attendees. This “Virtual On-line Discussion and Forecasts for 2010 with Ray Merriman!” will take place via the modern technology of Vibation, Inc. You can log onto this discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2010, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, go to our website at http://www.mmacycles.com (it will be up sometime this week). Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before December 15), to guarantee your participation!!! For those who live in the tri-country area of Michigan, there will be seating available for up to 50 people who want to witness this event on site. Call us for reservations.

The Forecast 2010 speech will also take place in Lansing, Michigan on January 3, 2010 at 1:00 PM. Contact 517-676-1680, or LCAstrology@cs.com for information. That will be followed by the presentation in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 16, 2010. Contact Schogt Market Timing for information at info@markettiming.nl or www.markettiming.nl or call 31-(0)-294-415-917. The next Forecast 2010 speech will be in Moscow, Russia on January 19, 2010. Contact www.urania.ru or Urania@urania.ru for further information and limited seating reservations. This will be followed by a presentation at the Swiss symposia in Zurich on January 23-24. Contact AstroData at info@mma-europe.ch, or www.mma-europe.ch or 41-(0)-43-343-33-66 for reservations and further information.

If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”

The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2010 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF at http://www.mmacycles.com/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,161/Itemid,63/. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not send these by snail mail unless requested.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2009; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
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Please note: This is not the same as our service titled "MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets" which is available by subscription only.

Another view of the big-picture down-trendline resistance in equities features Russell 2000: Chart of the Day

2009-12-11T19:39:00.003-05:00

There are many methods we and others use for analyzing markets, including trendlines. Andre Gratian, of course, uses them on big and near-term charts. We also apply trendlines to indicators themselves - one of the tools used by Terry Laundry, for example. Then of course there are horizontal lines used to define range-bound markets - as Phil Davis has pointed out, to which he also brings his fundamental outlook (see his article today for example, Options Trader Friday Outlook: Deja Vu All Over Again? -- Seeking Alpha. So it's interesting to see the folks at http://www.chartoftheday.com) share a look at their big-picture down-trendline in the Russell 2000:

Chart of the Day - The Russell 2000 downtrend
December 11, 2009
For some perspective on the current state of the stock market, today's chart presents the long-term trend of the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks). As the chart illustrates, from late 2002 into 2007 the Russell 2000 traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel. However, since mid-2007, the trend has been down. Fears of an outright collapse of the financial sector resulted in support (green dashed line) of an already fairly steep downtrend to be breached. As it became apparent that the financial sector would survive, stock prices rose with the Russell 2000 moving back into its original downtrend channel. Currently, the Russell 2000 is testing resistance (red dashed line) of its two-year downtrend channel for the second time since the financial crisis.
Notes:
- The market is at a critical juncture. Where we go from here may surprise you. Find out right now with the highly regarded charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

Quote of the Day
"I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination." - Jimmy Dean

Chart of the Day is provided to subscribers without warranty of any kind and accepts no responsibility for its accuracy or for any consequences of its use. Journalists and bloggers may post the above free Chart of the Day on their website as long as the chart is unedited and full credit is given with a live link to Chart of the Day at http://www.chartoftheday.com.

ChartsEdge (US equities) map for 12/11

2009-12-11T07:58:00.000-05:00

Thanks again to Mike Korell and his ChartsEdge forecasting - here's today's intraday BP map from ChartsEdge Daily Maps (remember, their Pattern Recognition intraday map for today is at their subscriber site). Their two types of intraday cycle forecast maps, plus their weekly cycle forecasts (use "ChartsEdge weekly" label most days - today, Mike provided the Friday "slice" out of it, below), gain predictive power when they all look similar - follow links on their site for details, and much of that info is also posted at my NB3 blogspot - links above and at right).

If you've been watching the US equities markets at all you've noticed that they've been trading in a range. The close parameters being SPX 1084/1082 below, and 1107/1112/1119 (1122) above. Many eyes are on SPX 1122 because of it being the 50% retrace-to-2007-peak area. Then there are higher levels like 1133 and even higher - but the point right now is, whether and when we break out of the range ... And in which direction. We're not going to assume it breaks to the upside. Because other indices like the Dow, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq already rang their important Fibonacci retrace levels. Not a guarantee the rally is done, but the bull case isn't a lock either.

Well without further ado - happy market navigating today! Remember it's Friday, the day the market normally prefers to leave the most options open (just a manner of speaking!), so get to where you can close your trading book this afternoon and enjoy the evening. So, here's today's ChartsEdge:
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Bullish percent technical charts show the equities indices at critical levels

2009-12-10T23:03:00.004-05:00

Bullish percent - the percent of stocks within an index that sport bullish P&F price objectives (generated by Stockcharts.com using their default settings) definitely fell down over the past week or so for the SPX, NDX and NYSE ($NYA). Interestingly the one for the NYSE looks more able to reverse, perhaps off its own 200-day MA (and has positive divergence) .... But all three show the technical breakdown associated with this drop from above 80%. So the critical jucture is simply this - turn this into a cyclic low, now or soon. Or get mired in the breakdown and have this lead to lower lows.

Can the NYSE be a leading index, replacing the Nasdaq in that role? Or for that matter, can it be the Dow? To some extent, yes, but enough undertow from the other indices can drag them down too. So bears should not be surprised if the indices can pull off more bounce. But bulls should conversely be prepared if this breakdown isn't reversed fairly soon.

Correction - ChartsEdge maps for 12/10

2009-12-10T10:23:00.003-05:00

Thanks to the commenter who pointed out that I incorrectly re-posted yesterday's maps! Here are the right ones from http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/

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ChartsEdge BP chart for Dec10

Posted: December 10th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

ChartsEdge Excerpt from weekly chart for Dec10

Posted: December 10th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

ChartsEdge (US equities) maps for 12/10

2009-12-10T07:36:00.003-05:00

Thanks again, Mike and ChartsEdge, for making available your intraday equities cycle maps! Today these include both the Pattern Recognition, and the BP. Readers should also go back and look at the INTRAday portion for today (Thursday) of their weekly map (you can find here with the Chartsedge weekly label; or Mike has also re-posted it at the ChartsEdge subscriber site). The ones below are as made available by ChartsEdge, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/:

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ChartsEdge Daily Charts

Posted: December 9th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

http://www.chartsedge.com