Equities moving closer to 4-year cycle crest; while dollar, and Federal Reserve, hang in the balance: Weekly comments by Raymond Merriman

Here are Raymond Merriman's public comments for the week ahead, which you can always find along with other public portions of his articles and commentaries at Merriman Market Analysis (MMAcycles.com) [included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page here]:
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Weekly Comments for the Week Beginning August 3, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview
The post Jupiter-Neptune conjunction euphoria continues as many world equity indices accelerated last week to new highs for this year. The cluster of several Venus signatures present July 21-28 only caused the market’s “bullet train” to pause for a brief rest after last Monday. By Thursday, it was all gassed up and off to the next leg of its race to the crest of the 4-year cycle.

This rally since the second passage (of three) of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction on July 10 has been impressive. In almost all indices, prices have risen at least 14% in the past two-three weeks. In fact, if we take the starting point as the Venus retrograded low of March 6, the rally in world equity prices have been extremely impressive. All we have to do next week is to make yet another new high for this year and we will qualify our minimum time objective for a 4-year cycle crest. As stated in this year’s Forecast for 2009 book, written in November 2008, “…a 4- and 6-year cycle low may be completed anytime before May 2009… Once that low is in, look for a very healthy 5-16 month rally for the crest of the new 4- and 6-year cycle.” What constitutes a healthy rally to the crest of a 4-year cycle? Well, as documented in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes,” of the 28 four-year cycles in the DJIA since 1893, there were only 5 cases where the rally failed to gain of at least 50%. Last Thursday’s high of 9246 now represents an appreciation of 42.9% from the 6470 low of March 6. We are getting close. But if we examine other indexes of the world, we will see many have already satisfied this condition. And Monday, August 3, will start the fifth month, which begins the minimum time band for the 4-year cycle crest to be met as well.

The NASDAQ Composite has already made the minimum price criteria we have established for the 4-year cycle in stocks. From its low of 1265 on March 9 to its 2009 high so far last Thursday, it has appreciated 58.8%. Brazil’s Bovespa has appreciated 54.2% in the same time frame. But the stellar performer in the America’s has been Argentina’s Merval Index, which has soared over 90% from a low of 914 on March 3 to Friday’s high of 1738.

In Europe, the German DAX has been the best performer, rising from a 4-year cycle low of 3558 on March 9 to a high of 5396 last Thursday, for a gain of 51.6%. The Netherlands AEX and the Swiss SMI indices are closer to the DJIA, up 45.8% and 41.1% respectively from their 4-year cycle troughs of March 9. Lagging far behind, however, is London’s FTSE index. Its new multi-month high of 4646 last Thursday represents an increase of only 34.2% from its low of March 9.

Asia and the Pacific Rim have mixed results. Australia’s All Ordinaries has been the laggard, posting gains of only 35.6% from its 3090 low of March 10 to Friday’s high of 4251. Japan’s Nikkei has now risen from a low of 7021 on March 10 to a high of 10,359 on Friday of last week, for a gain of 47.5%. It is nearly to our minimum criterion of 50%. But the Hang Seng of Hong Kong and Nifty Index of India have been outstanding, posting gains of 82.5% and 83.9% respectively from their lows of March 6-9 to their highs of last week. In the case of the NIFTY, last week’s high wasn’t even a new multi-month high. It is still slightly below its high of June 12.

Even though the equity markets failed to reverse significantly under onslaught of Venus signature early last week, several other markets did. Gold and Silver, for instance, fell sharply from their highs of last Monday through Wednesday’s low. Gold fell from 960 to 925, and Silver from 1409 to 1316. The Euro currency and Swiss Franc also fell sharply over the same two days. For that matter, so did Crude Oil which dropped from 68.99 on Monday to 62.76 on Thursday. But by Thursday, each of these commenced another sharp rally, albeit not to new weekly highs.

Short-Term Geocosmics
What does this rally in world equity markets tell us from the perspective of Financial Astrology? It suggests that the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in Aquarius (May-December 2009), in mutual reception to Uranus in Pisces (January 2009-January 2010), has been a correlate of great hope regarding the economic and banking crisis that struck the world just prior to the Saturn-Uranus opposition (November 2008-July 2010). Two of the three passes of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction have now been completed as of July 10, and the market is still rising. That may be due to the fact that first Venus, then the Sun and Mars, are still making a “translation” to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Venus did so last week, while both the Sun and Mars will do so August 13-17.

After that, we head back into the minefield of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, which happens five times between November 4, 2008 and July 26, 2010. The third of the five passages of this 45-year cycle will unfold on September 15, with the new moon hitting that opposition just three days later. The first two passages (November 4, 20087 and February 5, 2009) coincided with what cycles’ analysts would label a “major cycle crest.” They were highs from which severe 3-4 week declines followed, and the DJIA dropped approximately 2000 points both times.

Longer-Term Thoughts
You read it here first. You may have even read in the “Forecast 2008” book, published in late 2007. The Federal Reserve Board and its Chairman Ben Bernanke are in trouble.

Just a few weeks ago, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas sponsored House Resolution 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, a bill designed to audit – and with the purpose of eliminating - the FRB. It was passed in June. Shortly thereafter, Bernanke was called to testify before Congress on his role in the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the possible forced sell out of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. He was treated very harshly by Congress, and some also wanted to know what happened to trillions of dollars the Fed spent during that crisis, even as President Obama was – and apparently still is – seeking to increase the powers of the FRB. Bernanke has recently stated that “I don’t think American people want Congress running monetary policy.” True enough, probably. But then this week, Rasmussen Reports conducted a national survey that finds “…. 75% of Americans favor auditing the Federal Reserve and making the results available to the public. Just nine percent (9%) of adults think that’s bad idea and oppose it.”

But… Pluto is on the Federal Reserve Board’s Sun opposite its natal Pluto (December 23, 1913, 6:02 PM, Washington D.C., according to the New York Times the next day). Pluto rules debt and taxes, and the threat of termination of an effort. It also rules audits, where the investigating agency wants to know how the funds were spent. The only way out is to be completely open and transparent, something that is not the nature of an entity whose natal Moon is in Scorpio, and natal Sun in hard aspect to Pluto, such as the FRB. To the contrary, the Federal Reserve Board is known for its secrecy and its independence, and both are seriously being questioned now.
Will the FRB and Bernanke survive this transit? I am not optimistic, given that Saturn and Uranus will next form a grand square to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition, late 2009 through much of 2010. And Bernanke’s term comes up for reappointment in January 2010.

Clients ask me, “What could cause another financial and market plunge in the near future?” This is one very possible cause. Imagine a Federal Reserve Board with expanded powers. And then imagine the current Chair of the Federal Reserve Board not being reappointed by the President, and in his place someone who has close ties to the White House and/or Congress is appointed. How do you think the global markets would react? I think you would see something akin to huge sucking sound occurring. That would be sound of the Dollar as it plummets on world markets against other currencies, and as the foreign investors (and nations) suddenly try to move their investments in the U.S. to newly defined “safe havens.” November 2009 through August 2010 – astrologically it has the potential to be a redefining period in the direction of the U.S, economy. It can be the end to this terrible recession, or it can be the start of the next big leg down, depending on what decisions our leaders make. And the Federal Reserve Board may be the key to all of it. After all, he who controls the money has the real power.

Readers may be interested in reading an interview of me that appeared at bankrate.com. http://www.bankrate.com/finance/personal-finance/sage-of-aquarius-sees-epic-bear-loss.aspx.

Announcements
The ISAR 2009 conference will take place in two weeks! To me, this is the most exciting conference of the year, especially for those interested in all kinds of astrology, but especially Financial Astrology. Attendance is expected to be about 500-600 people, from all over the world. These are professional astrologers and people of integrity and skill – not “fortune-tellers” and entertainers. If you are interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, this fantastic conference in Astrology is the place to go. It will take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers like Christeen Skinner, Grace Morris, Roy Gillett, and myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology, specializing in the Stock and Gold markets, on Monday, August 24. This is a great way to learn the basics of Financial Astrology combined with technical and cyclical analysis of financial markets. For more information, and registration, please go to http://www.isar2009.com/.
The “SOS Global Market Cycles Report” will come out this week, Tuesday, August 4. And it will be out one day later in German to our German & Swiss SOS subscribers (please go to http://www.mma-europe.ch/ to order the German version of SOS). This SOS monthly report addresses the long- and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the “big picture” ahead, like where we are now in terms of the 72-, 18-, 4-year, and 50-week cycles. It also discusses the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the DJIA, German DAX, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. The German edition also covers the Swiss Market Index (SMI). It also includes 3-star critical reversal dates for stock indices and a list of the major geocosmic signatures in effect for the following month, with their appropriate C/S values. For information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/catalogue/services/the-sos-stock-market-cycles/.
The monthly MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Cycles Reports came out last week. The “MMA Cycles Report” is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds. If you are a subscriber and did not get this issue, please contract us at once. For more information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/services/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-3,-2009/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
Stay tuned to these pages for an announcement on the annual pre-publication special offer for the Forecast 2010 book, coming in the next few weeks. Once the announcement is made, we will begin to take orders for this book that has sold out the past three years. Order early and make sure you get next year’s Forecasts!
We are pleased to announce our new official Japanese web site at http://merriman.jp/. Here you can read our free weekly report in Japanese every week. You can purchase several of our books and subscription reports in Japanese, including or new weekly Gold report, Cash Currencies report, and both the MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Markets Cycles reports. If you read Japanese, please feel free to check out this new site, created by Toshi Nippou Ltd. of Tokyo.
We are also pleased to announce the formation of our new Weekly Cash Currencies Report in English, to start the first week of June 2009. This report will cover our weekly analysis of cash Euro Currency, the Dollar-Yen, and the Euro-Dollar markets. For further in formation on this new subscription report, please visit www.mmacycles.com, and look under SERVICES.
The German version of “Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics” is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at http://www.mma-europe.ch/.

We have a valuable new feature to our web site. Now, on the very front page, you can get a daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Silver market, via the studies conducted in “The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles,” and “The Sun, Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader.” These are the studies I use personally for short-term trading of stock index futures, ETFs (like DIA and Silver fund), and Silver futures. Anything over 100 means it has an above-average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/, and just check it out on the top of the page.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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