Friday, January 9, 2009

Early confirmation of potential rally in Treasury bonds

The indicators are looking helpful to the bounce or rally in Treasury bonds that I discussed yesterday, using the TLT chart. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current intraday high in TLT could be a "triangle trap" since the high today so far is 113.35 which is above (slightly, but critically is still above) the high of 113.26, therefore negating what otherwise would have looked like a standard triangle leading to lower TLT prices.

I still recommend a tight stop under buy entries here (example, at or just under 111 in TLT). Assuming a long swing trade continues to play out, we'll have to let it tell us whether this is simply a pullback upward that doesn't lead to new highs, or whether it still has a somewhat higher target in bond prices (which I've also discussed here previously, including yesterday).

Don't worry about whether I'm ignoring the bubble aspect of bonds - I see it - I'm just wanting to be on the right side of the trade since it's looking like either a rally bounce or perhaps more for bond prices right now.

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