Thursday, December 18, 2008

Vix, Yen and TLT


Ariel,

I like your near term path for Vix, especially as Vix came down and finally tested its lower BB. My post from three days ago was clearly premature :)

Also, the Vix:VXV ratio has dipped to 0.95 -- in the past this is a level from which equities reverse.

However, the holidays are appraoching, so Vix might just be decreasing due to the drop in volatility. For instance, today both Vix and SPX had a down day, which is rare.

Meanwhile, TLT continues to grind higher, diverging from XJY today. Perhaps XJY is retracing to kissback the broken resistance (actually from the overnight high in Yen).

Meanwhile, it seems that gold is once again becoming correlated to Yen. This correlation broke apart some months ago when risk aversion strengthening the US dollar kicked in.

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